[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Oct 04 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane SAM, at 04/0300 UTC, is near 39.3N
51.2W. Sam is moving toward the NE, or 050 degrees, 17 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots.
Expect the maximum sea heights to reach 40 feet.  Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 38N to 41N
between 49W and 54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 24N northward between 47W and 61W. Please, read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center, at the website
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1,
 and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression VICTOR, at 04/0300 UTC, is
near 17.8N 43.0W. Victor is moving toward the northwest, or 305
degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with
gusts to 40 knots. Expect sea heights 12 feet or greater within
210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant...maximum sea heights to 15 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 90 nm to 200
nm of the center in the N quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere within 900 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

The OUTLOOK period, for the 24 hours after the initial forecast
period, for the METEO-FRANCE high seas forecast, consists of:
the threat of Northeast near gale or gale in the area AGADIR.
Please, refer to the following website,
http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.07
51.030751569878.html, for details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: all the
nearby precipitation is to the north and south of the monsoon
trough. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 20W and
40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W,from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level trough is in
the Atlantic Ocean, along 76W/77W, from 31N, across the Bahamas,
across the eastern half of Cuba, to the western sections of
Jamaica, to the east central coastal sections of Nicaragua.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated to widely scattered strong is between 68W and the line
that extends from SE Cuba to the NE coast of Honduras.
Other isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, to the
west and northwest of the line from Cuba to Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 09N20W, to 07N30W and 05N33W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N33W, to 05N35W 06N39W 06N50W and 07N56W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between
20W and 40W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere to the south of the
monsoon trough, and within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ from
40W westward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 10N to 11N between 60W and 62W, surrounding the northern
half of Trinidad and nearby waters.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is inland, passing through east Texas, to
south central Texas, to the Texas Big Bend. A north-to-south
oriented surface trough is along 95W/96W, from 26N southward to
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 92W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere, from 92W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A surface
ridge passes through SE Georgia, into the central Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate E winds are in the SE Gulf and offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula, while weaker winds prevail elsewhere. The sea heights
range from 2 feet to 4 feet, with the comparatively highest seas
in the eastern part of the Gulf waters.

A weak ridge of high pressure north of the Gulf along 33N will
move eastward through Tue, supporting tranquil conditions across
all but the southeast sections of the basin. A weak cold front
will move across the Gulf on Mon and Tue, with little
enhancement of the winds and seas, except across the western Bay
of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 71W/72W,from 20N southward, moving W 10
to 15 knots. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean,
along 76W/77W, from 31N, across the Bahamas, across the eastern
half of Cuba, to the western sections of Jamaica, to the east
central coastal sections of Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely
scattered strong is between 68W and the line that extends from
SE Cuba to the NE coast of Honduras. Other isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere, to the west and northwest of the
line from Cuba to Honduras.

The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon
trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa
Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate, to locally strong covers
the area that is from 15N southward from 74W westward.

Fresh to locally strong trade winds cover the eastern and
central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Generally moderate trade
winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet
in the central and eastern sections, and from 3 feet to 5 feet
in the western and southwestern sections.

High pressure will build north of the area. This will increase
the winds and seas across the NE and central Caribbean Sea Mon
and Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds then will persist across
the south central Caribbean through Thu. Moderate N to NE swell
will affect the tropical Atlc waters through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 76W/77W, from 31N, across the
Bahamas, across the eastern half of Cuba, to the western
sections of Jamaica, to the east central coastal sections of
Nicaragua. A surface trough curves along 25N67W 23N71W, to
northern Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong covers the waters that are from 20N to 31N
between 63W and 77W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along
71W/72W, from 20N southward. Upper level winds are not expected
to be especially conducive, and any development of this system
should be slow to occur, while it moves slowly northwestward
through late this week.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, that is on the island of La Palma in
the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September at 1410
UTC. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this on-going
situation, by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory, that is issued
by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A broad surface ridge near the Azores covers most of the NE
Atlantic Ocean. The pressure gradient between the ridge, and
lower pressures in South America, results in generally fresh
trade winds from 22N southward between 45W and the Lesser
Antilles. The fastest wind speeds are in the waters that are
near the Windward Islands. A similar pressure gradient occurs in
the NE Atlantic Ocean between the ridge and lower pressures of
NW Africa. Expect fresh to locally strong NE winds from 20N
northward from 28W eastward. The comparatively fastest wind
speeds are in the waters that surround the Canary Islands and
near the coast of NW Africa. Mainly moderate winds are in the
rest of the basin. Expect sea heights that range from 5 feet to
8 feet, elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, away from
Hurricane Sam and Tropical Depression Victor.

Swells generated from Hurricane Sam, centered well NE of the
area, will prevail across the area waters through Mon, and then
continue across the waters E of 70W through Wed. High pressure
along the mid Atlc coast will drift slowly eastward through mid
week. This will produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of
23N and east of the Bahamas through Tue before spreading into
the southeast Bahamas. Active weather is expected to develop
across the waters E of 75W and NE the Bahamas Mon night through
Tuesday, as a surface trough develops across the SE Bahamas and
shifts slowly NW.

$$
mt
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