[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 032039
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
500 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

The convective structure of Victor has deteriorated this afternoon.
Only small pulses of convection have been observed north of the
center over the past several hours. Victor's exposed low-level
circulation is also becoming more diffuse, with multiple cloud
swirls noted in visible satellite imagery. Hopefully, scatterometer
data this evening will provide more information about whether Victor
still possesses a closed and well-defined surface center. For now,
Victor is held as a 30-kt tropical depression, which is consistent
with earlier scatterometer winds and a blend of the data-T and
current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Victor is unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much longer. The
dry mid-level environment and 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear are expected to limit Victor's ability to sustain deep,
organized convection going forward. Even if another diurnal
convective pulse occurs tonight, it should be quickly stripped away
from the center by the moderate to strong shear. The official NHC
forecast shows Victor becoming a remnant low on Monday, then opening
up into a trough and dissipating soon thereafter. Victor is moving
northwestward, or 315/11 kt. A northwestward or west-northwestward
motion is expected to continue through dissipation as the depression
is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The official NHC
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 17.1N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 18.4N  42.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.7N  45.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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