[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 031440
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has
managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of
its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective
and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an
ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated
center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which
puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective
overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these
retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and
appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to
30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at
30 kt for this advisory.

The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will
persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on
Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is
embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection.
Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor
is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low
by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's
low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens
up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor
does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over
the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt.
A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation
as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical
ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official
NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to
the center relocation described above.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 16.1N  40.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 17.6N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.5N  43.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 21.1N  45.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 22.4N  48.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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