[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 030246
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

Victor remains a tropical cyclone this evening, with pulsing deep
convection occuring primarily north of the well-defined low-level
center. However, this convection lacks much organization and is
continually being stripped away by around 20 kt of
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. Earlier this evening, there
was an ASCAT-A pass valid at 2238 UTC which had peak wind retrievals
of 25-30 kt to the northeast of the center. There was also a nearby
moored ocean buoy that at 0000 UTC reported sustained winds of 28 kt
with a pressure of 1006.7 mb also just northeast of Victor. The
latest advisory intensity is thus being maintained at 30 kt but the
minimum pressure was lowered a bit due to this in-situ buoy data.
The 30 kt intensity also agrees with most recent TAFB Dvorak CI
estimate from 0000 UTC.

Ultimately the combination of southwesterly vertical wind shear and
the associated entrainment of dry air will prove victorious against
Victor, with the depression forecast to gradually weaken during the
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast still shows
Victor becoming a remnant low by tomorrow evening, though 27 to
28 C sea surface temperatures could still support sheared
convective bursts to the north of the low center into early next
week. Victor's low-level wind field will also continue to spin down
over the subsequent days, and the circulation is forecast to open
up into a trough by Tuesday. The latest forecast is essentially
unchanged from the previous one and is in good agreement with the
consensus aids and deterministic model output.

The depression continues to move to the northwest at 310/12 kt
though with the occasional tug poleward by the convection on its
northern side. This northwestward motion is expected to continue as
Victor remains embedded in the flow around a low-level subtropical
anticyclone to its northeast. The NHC track forecast continues to be
in general agreement with the track guidance consensus, maintaining
Victor on a similar forward motion until the system opens up into a
trough in 2-3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.8N  38.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 16.3N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.4N  42.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1200Z 20.3N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 21.8N  46.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1200Z 23.2N  48.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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