[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 021448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

Strong southwesterly shear and entrainment of dry air have taken
their toll on Victor. The deep convection and the remnant mid-level
core has been stripped away from the cyclone's low-level
circulation, and is now more than 250 n mi northeast of Victor's
center. The most recent UW-CIMMS shear analysis indicates the shear
magnitude is about 30 kt over the center of the cyclone, and nearly
50 kt just to its north. The initial intensity is being lowered to
35 kt for this advisory based on the latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB. However, this value could be generous.

Victor's vector is 305/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue
until the system dissipates, as the cyclone is steered in the flow
to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is just slightly to the left of the previous one, and lies
on the western side of the guidance envelope to accommodate the
shallow nature of the circulation.

The strong shear is not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the
foreseeable future and very dry, African dust-laden air lies in
the path of Victor. Therefore, it is unlikely that organized deep
convection will redevelop near the center of the cyclone. Because of
this, Victor is now expected to become a remnant low by tonight. The
remnant low is forecast by the global models to open into a trough
in 60 h. Due to the quick weakening that has been observed, the
latest NHC intensity forecast was lowered through the first 12 h,
and then remains the same as the previous forecast beyond that time
frame.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 13.1N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.1N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/1200Z 15.9N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 18.0N  42.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 20.0N  44.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 21.6N  46.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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