[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 012043
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021

Victor is looking disorganized.  Deep convection has decreased in
organization and coverage this afternoon. No recent microwave
imagery has been available to assess the structure of the storm, but
visible images from MET-11 and GOES-17 suggest that the circulation
of the tropical storm is still elongated southwest-to-northeast. The
intensity estimate remains 55 kt for this advisory, but this is on
the high end of the recent estimates and could be generous.

Compared to the large changes made this morning, almost no change
was made to the official track forecast this afternoon. The model
consensus has shifted substantially back to the right, and now lies
very near the previous NHC forecast. Victor is forecast to turn
northwestward tomorrow, and then continue on that heading through
early next week, steered by ridging to the northeast. The new NHC
forecast is very near the model consensus through the end of the
forecast. Despite the recent agreement between the NHC forecast and
the consensus, confidence in the forecast will remain low until we
see better run-to-run consistency in the track model guidance.

Shear and dry air may already be taking a toll on Victor, and SHIPS
diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment
will get worse with time. All of the intensity models forecast that
Victor will weaken over the next several days in response to the
hostile environment, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast,
which is heavily based on the IVCN multi-model consensus. By day 5,
all of the dynamical models indicate that Victor will likely
degenerate into a trough of low pressure, so dissipation is shown.
Several models, including the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF indicate
dissipation could occur sooner than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 12.0N  34.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 12.7N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 13.9N  37.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 15.6N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 17.6N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 19.7N  42.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 21.5N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 24.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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