[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010547
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 01 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea and extends to near 09N15W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N15W to 07N27W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 09N between 17W and 24W. Similar convection
is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the southeast U.S.
allowing for gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin and no significant
convection is occurring.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern
Gulf will dominate the basin through the week. This high
pressure will move eastward through the week, returning the east
to southeast flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1016 mb low is located along a surface trough stretching from
western Cuba near 22N84W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N87W.
The low is centered near 20N86W. No significant convection is
associated with these features. Another surface trough moved
through the Lesser Antilles this afternoon and now stretches
from near 20N61W to 12N62W with moderate convection occurring
within 60 nm on both sides of its axis. The eastward extension
of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches across Panama into
the far SW Caribbean near northern Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection associated with this trough is confined to waters S
of 13N.

A scatterometer satellite pass reveals moderate to fresh winds
prevailing across most of the basin with locally strong winds N
of Colombia and S of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds are within
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas average 4 to 6 ft, except 7 ft seas
in the SW basin and 2 to 4 ft seas in the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain
moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean through the
end of the week and into the weekend, with fresh to strong winds
pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night.
Moderate to fresh NE winds will also be possible over the
Windward Passage and Mona Passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N56W and becomes stationary near
28N60W. A satellite scatterometer pass noted gentle E winds
south of the stationary front and gentle to moderate S winds
ahead of the cold front. Gentle to moderate NE winds are north
of the boundary. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
ahead of the cold front, north of 28N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
surrounding the front and 4 to 6 ft west of 70W.

Farther east, a strong pressure gradient across the eastern
Atlantic is allowing for fresh to strong NE to E trades east of
40W as well as areas S of 20N, with seas of 8 to 11 ft.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stalled front extending from
25N65W to Crooked Island in the Bahamas will dissipate through
mid week. High pressure will settle across the forecast area in
the wake of the front, and dominate the region through the
weekend.

$$
Mora
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