[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal border of Guinea
and Sierra Leone near 09.5N13W and continues to 06N18W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ to 03N24W to 03N30W and to 02N41W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front is southeast of the Gulf over central
Cuba. A trough extends from central Cuba to across the central
Yucatan Peninsula and to southeastern Mexico. High pressure
is building across the Gulf of Mexico resulting in fairly
tranquil weather conditions, except for small patches of
broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible
light rain and drizzle that are observed over some areas of
the SW Gulf and south-central Gulf waters. Recent scatterometer
satellite data and surface observations show gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds across the Gulf, with the exception of
the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida were fresh northeast
winds are noted. Seas are in the range of 4-6 ft, except for lower
seas of 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf and north-central Gulf waters and
5-7 ft in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure is building across the northern
Gulf and will dominate the basin the remainder of the week. As
high pressure moves eastward, southerly return flow will set-up
across the northwest Gulf by mid-week. Looking ahead, a weak cold
front may enter the northern Gulf by late Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergence of northeast trade winds along with divergent flow
aloft east of a weak mid/upper level trough over Nicaragua are
combining to support a large area of showers and thunderstorms,
south of 14N between to some of the coastal sections of
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Satellite-derived winds and
surface observations indicate fresh to strong trades in the
south-central and SW Caribbean Sea. Seas of 4-6 ft are within
this part of the sea. The earlier cold front that entered the
northwestern Carribbean Sea from the Gulf of Mexico is presently
weakening from central Cuba to 21N84W, where it becomes a trough
to inland the Yucatan Peninsula to just south of Cozumel. Broken
to overcast low and mid-level clouds with possible scattered
showers are along and within 60-90 nm northwest of the
front/trough. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions,
moderate or weaker trades and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will
persist across the Caribbean through Wed, with strong winds
pulsing off Colombia, mainly at night. High pressure building
north of the area will slightly enhance trade winds across the
Caribbean later in the week. Meanwhile, moderate north to
northeast swell will continue across the Atlantic waters east
of 70W and through the northeast Caribbean passages through
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 03Z, a cold front extends from 31N65W through the central
Bahamas and to central Cuba, where it begins to weaken into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A pre-frontal trough extends from
near 28N67W to 20N72W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted north of 29N between 58W-62W and within
60 nm of 27N61W. The latest ASCAT data shows strong southwest
winds within 180 nm east of the front north of 28N, and fresh
to strong south to southwest winds elsewhere within east of
front to 58W and north of 26N. The ASCAT data also depicts
fresh to strong northwest winds within about 60 nm west of
the front and north of 29N. Seas of 8 ft are present within
the area of strong winds.

Over the Central Atlantic, a trough extends from near 29N41W to
22N44W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are seen
north of 24N between the trough and 37W. This activity is being
supported by a broad upper-level trough located over that part of
the area. A strong 1037 mb high pressure center near the Azores
and lower pressures over western Africa allow for a moderate
pressure gradient, resulting in a large area of fresh to strong
anticyclonic winds east of 40W and north of 05N. The strongest
winds are occurring east of 30W and north of 14N, including the
waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-12 ft are present
east of 45W, with the highest seas occurring north of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the previously-mentioned cold front
will move quickly southeast across the forecast waters, and reach
from near 27N65W to eastern Cuba by Tue morning. High pressure
will settle across the forecast area in the wake of the front,
and dominate the region through Sat.

$$
Aguirre
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