[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N20W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N20W
to 00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N
between 15W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to a 1016
mb surface low centered off the Texas coast near 26N96W. Buoy and
platform observations along with a scatterometer satellite pass
from 0400 UTC indicated fresh NW to N winds near the low pressure
and within 60 nm of the Texas coast south of Corpus Christi, with
4 to 6 ft seas. Weak high pressure centered over the northeast
Gulf dominates the pattern elsewhere across the basin, supporting
light to gentle breezes and slight seas. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is evident.

For the forecast, the low pressure will move into the southeast
Gulf through tonight then dissipate along with the front, ahead of
another cold front expected to enter the northeast Gulf this
evening. The second front will move across the eastern Gulf
through Tue night, allowing high pressure to build over the
northern Gulf through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad high pressure northeast of the Bahamas is supporting
moderate NE winds across the central Caribbean, with fresh winds
funneling in the lee of both Cuba and Hispaniola, off Nicaragua,
and off Colombia, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes
persist elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas, except a little higher near
Atlantic passages where N swell persists. A few showers are noted
north of Panama, but no significant convection is noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist
over all but the NW Caribbean through Mon. Moderate N to NE swell
will continue across the Atlantic waters east of 70W and through
the NE Caribbean passages through late tonight. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night,
then stall and dissipate Tue night through Wed. High pressure
north of the front will induce strong trade winds across the south
central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas,
where it becomes a stationary front to the Straits of Florida.
Broad 1019 mb high pressure is centered east of northeast Florida
near 29N75W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds west
of 60W. Large northerly swell has been moving across the Atlantic
waters east of 60W over the past couple of days, but this is
starting to subside from west to east. Latest buoy and altimeter
satellite data show seas below 8 ft west of 60W, except for an
new area of swell 8 ft or greater north of 28N and east of 65W. In
addition, seas still exceed 8 ft east of 60W, north of 20N,
mainly in N swell.

For the forecast west of 65W, the front will dissipate from
26N65W to northwest Cuba late today into early Mon. A reinforcing
cold front will move off northeast Florida late today, reach from
Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon, then start to stall from
27N65W to central Cuba Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, northerly
swell will continue to move through the waters east of the Bahamas
into early next week, then subside Mon night through Tue.

Farther east, an earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured
the western edge of a low pressure area centered near 26.5N55W. A
broad ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic. Divergence aloft east
of a mid/upper trough along 40W is supporting scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms north of 20N between 30W and 40W. There
is some evidence a surface trough is embedded in this area, and
successive scatterometer satellite passes have been showing a
sharp gradient with strong winds noted northeast of line roughly
from the Cabo Verde Islands to 31N40W, approximating where this
trough should be. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northeast of line as well.
Gentle to moderate trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted
elsewhere.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Christensen
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