[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone coast near 07N12W to
5.5N15W. The intertropical convergence zone continues 03.5N30W to
5.5N45W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N
to 07N between 28W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from just south of Chokoloskee on the
southwest coast of Florida to the southwest Gulf near 22N94W.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are ongoing over
the far western Gulf, west of 95W and along the Mexican coast.
Moderate N to NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of the
front, with light to gentle N winds and slight seas south of the
front. No significant convection is evident.

For the forecast, low pressure will develop off northeast Mexico
tonight, lifting the western portion of the front northward. The
low and will move into the south- central Gulf by Sun night, then
dissipate along with the front Mon, ahead of a stronger front
moving into the northern Gulf Sun. Looking ahead, the second front
will move through the Florida Straits late Mon and Tue, then
stall over the Yucatan Channel Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of frontal boundaries have disrupted the subtropical ridge
north of the basin, resulting in gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 3 to 5 ft seas across the Caribbean this morning. Recent
altimeter satellite data shows seas to 9 ft over the Atlantic
waters east of the Leeward Islands. This is due to continued
northerly swell moving into the region. A few thunderstorms are
active off Panama south of 11N, but no significant convection is
noted elsewhere.

Occasionally stronger high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh NE to E winds over mainly the central Caribbean
into the middle of next week. Moderate N swell will continue to
move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into
Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean through late Sun.
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the northwest
Caribbean late Tue, then stall and dissipate through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N70W to near Miami, Florida. Earlier
scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong NW winds
following the front over the waters north of the Bahamas and east
of northeast Florida. Scatterometer data also indicated fresh to
strong SW winds within 240 nm ahead of the front north of 29N.
Buoy and altimeter satellite data showed 6 to 9 ft seas north of
28N, likely in a mix of local wind waves and longer period N to NE
swell. Light to gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in NE swell are
noted elsewhere over open waters west of 65W. Farther east, a
stationary front reaches from 31N45W to the Leeward Islands. The
buoy and altimeter data indicated 8 to 12 ft seas in N swell over
much of the area north of 22N between 35W and 65W, with gentle to
moderate winds. Strong E to SE winds are evident over the eastern
Atlantic north of 28N, with 8 to 14 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NE
winds and 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere east of 35W. A few showers
may be possible from 15N to 20N between 40W and 45W, east of the
stationary front.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front from 31N70W to
Miami, Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys
later today, then then stall and dissipate from 27N65W to
northwest Cuba Sun night into early Mon. A second cold front will
move off NE Florida Sun, then reach from Bermuda to the Florida
Straits by late Mon into early Tue, then start to stall from
27N65W to central Cuba Tue night into Wed. Meanwhile, northerly
swell will continue to move into the waters northeast of the
Virgin and Leeward Islands into early next week, then subside.

$$
Christensen
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