[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border areas of the
coastal plains of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 06N15W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N15W to 04N27W, 06N43W, and 05N48W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 04N to 06N between 09W and 12W, and from 02N to 05N between
26W and 33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through south Florida just to the north of
Lake Okeechobee, into the central Louisiana, to the Deep south
of Texas at the border with Mexico. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered
moderate rainshowers are on either side of the front.

A surface ridge is to the northwest of the cold front. The ridge
extends from a NW Mississippi 1024 mb high pressure center, to
an east central Texas 1024 mb high pressure center, to a 1027 mb
north central Mexico high pressure center.

Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from the middle Texas Gulf
coast into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The maximum sea
heights of 10 feet to 11 feet cover the waters that are from
Veracruz in Mexico to the Deep South of Texas. The sea heights
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere to the west of the line
that runs from the Florida Panhandle to the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The sea heights range
from 2 feet to 3 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from near Port Charlotte, Florida to off
Veracruz, Mexico. The western part of the front will move
northward Sat night as low pressure develops along it, off
northeast Mexico. The low will move into the south central Gulf
by Sun night, then dissipate Mon. The front will weaken as it
moves southeast of the basin by late Mon or early Tue, ahead of
a stronger front moving into the northern and western Gulf Sun.
Looking ahead, the second front will stall from the southeastern
Gulf to the south central Gulf by late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire
Caribbean Sea, with a 10N ridge. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 15N northward
from 72W eastward.

A shear line is along 19N58W 17N64W 15N73W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is to the southeast of the shear line. The
comparatively highest sea heights are 5 feet in the coastal
waters of Puerto Rico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4
feet, elsewhere. Moderate to fresh winds are in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, and in the Windward Passage. Moderate winds
are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate winds are to
the north of the 19N58W 17N64W shear line. Gentle winds are to
the south of the shear line, within 420 nm to the east of 64W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from northern Colombia at 74W,
southwestward, beyond the southern sections of Panama.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side
of the monsoon trough.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of
broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

A stationary front that was in the NE Caribbean has dissipated
this afternoon. In its wake, moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds will prevail through the weekend. Moderate N swell will
continue to move into Atlantic waters east of the Leeward
Islands and into Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean
into Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into the
northwest Caribbean Mon night or early Tue, then stall and
dissipate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 31N45W, to 24N50W, 19N58W. A
shear line continues from 19N58W, to 17N64W and to 15N73W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 800 nm to the east and southeast of the stationary front
from 15N northward. Isolated moderate is from 10N to 15N between
47W and 60W. Strong winds are from 29N northward from 66W
westward. Moderate to fresh winds are from 26N northward from
60W westward. Moderate to fresh winds, or slower, are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The sea heights are 8 feet or higher, in general, from 20N
northward. The sea heights range from 9 feet to 12 feet from 25N
northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet
to 9 feet from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. The sea
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet from the Bahamas northward,
and at least 3 feet from the Bahamas southward. The sea heights
range from 6 feet to 7 feet, in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean, from 20N southward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 15N northward from the stationary front eastward. Strong to
near-gale force winds are from 26N northward between 20W and
30W. Moderate to fresh winds are from 25N northward from 20W
eastward.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

High pressure E of the Bahamas will continue moving E tonight as
a cold front moves off the NE Florida coast. By Sat, this front
will stretch from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas to near Miami,
Florida. The front will then stall Sun and dissipate by Mon. A
second cold front will move off NE Florida Sun night, then reach
from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon into early Tue,
then start to stall from 28N65W to the Florida Straits by Tue
night. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move into the
waters northeast of the Virgin and Leeward Islands into early
next week, then subside.

$$
mt/ec
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