[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Sierra Leone
near 08N18W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 06N35W
to 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
evident from 03N to 10N between 22W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends into the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida
Panhandle to 26N92W to near Tampico, Mexico. Buoy and platform
observations along with data from a recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicate fresh to strong winds are following the
front over the northwest Gulf, with seas reaching 6 to 8 ft, with
the highest seas near Brownsville, Texas. Elsewhere across the
Gulf, light to gentle breezes and slight seas are evident. Clouds
with possible embedded showers are noted behind the front. The
pattern remains fairly dry east of the front with no significant
shower or thunderstorm activity noted at this time.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
Port Charlotte, Florida to 24N96W to Veracruz, Mexico by late
today. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the
western Gulf through late today, with near gale- force N winds
possible nearshore from Brownsville, Texas, to Tampico, Mexico
this morning. The western portion of the front will lift northward
Sat as low pressure develops along it over the northwest Gulf by
Sat night. The low will move into the south- central Gulf by late
Sun, then dissipate. The front will weaken as it moves southeast
of the basin by late Mon or early Tue, ahead of a stronger front
moving into the northern and western Gulf Sun. Looking ahead, the
second front will stall from the southeastern Gulf to the south-
central Gulf by late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the northern Leeward Islands to 18N65W
and a weakening stationary front continues south of Hispaniola to
18N75W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are evident between the
northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, including the Anegada
Passage behind the cold front. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are located near the coast of Colombia and south of
11N, east of 78W. Scattered showers are also observed near
northeast Honduras. Patches of low level clouds with embedded
showers are noted elsewhere.

Fresh northerly winds are over the northeast Caribbean, in the
wake of the front and near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to
moderate winds are observed elsewhere. Seas of 6 to 7 feet are
across the Atlantic passages behind the front and also near the
coast of Colombia. 3 to 5 ft seas exist elsewhere with the
exception of 1 to 3 ft seas over the far eastern Caribbean, east
of 76W and near the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western
Panama.

For the forecast, the above mentioned stationary front will
dissipate this evening, with fresh NE winds prevailing north of
boundary until then. Moderate N swell will continue to move into
Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands and into Atlantic
passages in the northeast Caribbean into Sat. Looking ahead, a
weak cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean Mon night
or early Tue, then stall and dissipate.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1019 high pressure is centered between northeast Florida and
Bermuda near 28N75W. The most recent scatterometer data suggests
the presence of a trough extending from 30N77W through the
northwest Bahamas. Fresh to strong westerly winds are associated
with this trough, mainly north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front
reaches from 31N44W to the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along the frontal
boundary. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are evident on
scatterometer data behind the front and between 52W and 58W. Seas
of 8 to 11 ft and northwest to north swells follow the front.
Another cold front crosses the Canary Islands and continues
westward to 27N27W, where it transitions to a stationary front to
beyond 31N32W. Strong to near gale force winds are observed in
the wake of the front north of 30N. Scattered showers are
associated with the front. A weak 1018 high pressure is located
between the two aforementioned fronts at 21N35W. Gentle to
moderate trade winds are noted between the southern periphery of
the high pressure and ITCZ.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Low to
medium ash concentration can be found in the vicinity of the
Volcano and low elsewhere. Marine and aviation interests should
monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la- palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure off northeast
Florida will shift east today, ahead of a cold front moving off
the northeast Florida coast tonight. The front will reach from
Bermuda to West Palm Beach, Florida by early Sat, then stall and
dissipate between 25N and 27N by Sun night. A second front will
move off the northeast Florida coast Sat night into early Sun,
reach from Bermuda to southeast Florida by late Mon into early
Tue, then start to stall from 28N65W to the Florida Straits by Tue
night. Meanwhile, northerly swell will continue to move into the
waters northeast of the Virgin and Leeward Islands through early
next week, then subside.

$$
ERA/GR/HVN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net