[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210407
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near
11N15W to 09N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
04N30W to 03N48W. Scattered strong convection is noted from
03N-08N between  10W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 01N-10N between 21W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the SW Gulf from 22.5N 97W to 18.5N
93.5W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are occurring
south of a line from Marco Island Florida to 21N96W. Drier
weather prevails over the northern Gulf. Fresh to locally strong
ENE winds are prevalent over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Buoy
42036 near 28.5N 84.5W is recording 25 kt E winds and seas of 5
ft. Moderate SE winds prevail in the western Gulf. Most of the
basin is covered by seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for 2 to 4 ft in
the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Carolinas is
building across the region. A strong cold front will move into
the basin by early Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected behind the front, mainly over the eastern Gulf, Mon
through Tue night. High pressure is forecast to build in behind
the front by the middle of the upcoming week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level anti-cyclonic flow covers the Caribbean
basin. This is leading to relatively dry weather over the
eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are noted near the Yucatan Channel and also in the SW
Caribbean offshore of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Fresh trade
winds are occurring across the central Caribbean with seas of 4
to 6 ft. Mainly moderate winds prevail in the eastern and
northwest Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas. The exception is the
Yucatan Channel, where seas of 5 to 7 ft are likely occurring.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail
across much of the Caribbean Sea through tonight. A cold front
will reach the Yucatan Channel by Mon evening, and extend from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Tue evening. Fresh to
locally strong winds and building seas are expected behind the
front across the western Caribbean, the Windward Passage and
Mona Passage through the middle of the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N63W to 29N69W, where it
transitions to a stationary front that extends WSW to Ft.
Lauderdale Florida. Scattered showers prevail along and within
330 nm south of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong to
locally near gale force NE to ENE winds prevailing within 180 nm
north of the front. Seas of 9 to 12 ft are likely occurring in
this area. At NOAA buoy 41010 near 28.9N 78.5W, ENE winds of 25
kt and seas of 10 ft were measured at 21/0200 UTC.

Farther east, a 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed near 33N47W. A
cold front stretches from 31N27W to  27N29W to 24N36W. A trough
is ahead of this front, extending from 31N23W to 26N25W to
22N31W. The latest ASCAT satellite wind data show near gale
force S winds of 30-33 kt within 120 nm east of the surface
trough, north of 29N. Fresh NW winds are west of the cold front,
north of 28N. Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail north of 27N between
20W-45W. Gentle to moderate winds cover most of the area from
02N-25N between Africa and 65W, with 4 to 7 ft seas.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Medium ash concentration is in the vicinity of the volcano,
while low concentration is elsewhere. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the
Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 65W, strong NE to E winds will continue
north of the stationary front today due to a tight pressure
gradient from strong high pressure offshore the southeastern
United States. This is expected to lead to hazardous marine
conditions through late today, with large swells possibly
lingering into Mon. The stationary front will remain across the
northern forecast waters through tonight, before lifting north
ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast on Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds are
expected across the area on Tue behind the cold front, with
building seas. Winds could reach gale force Tue behind the
front, several hundred nm to the east of the northern Florida.

$$
Hagen
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