[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to
06N31W, and to 05N43W. A surface trough is along 15N37W 08N40W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 160 nm to
the north of the ITCZ between 26W and 30W, within 240 nm to the
south of the ITCZ between 24W and 28W, in the southern coastal
waters and inland sections of Liberia. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere to the south of the line 26N15W
25N24W 13N60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the area of Lake Okeechobee of south
Florida, to 25N86W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico and the northern sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong are to the south of the line: 28N82W, 27N90W, to
the coast of Mexico at 24N. A surface ridge extends from western
Louisiana to an interior Mexico 1023 mb high pressure center
that is near 23N99W.

Fresh to strong winds are from 90W eastward. Moderate to fresh
winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet
to the south of the line: 30N86W 28N90W, 27N97W at the coast of
Texas. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

A cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Gulf
near 22N90W, to the south of Veracruz, Mexico. The front will
drift southward, while dissipating today. High pressure will
dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front. Another cold
front will enter the northwest Gulf early on Mon, and move to
the south of the basin by Mon evening. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are expected behind the front, mainly in the eastern Gulf,
through Tue night. High pressure will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 64W/65W, from 18N southward to the
coast of Venezuela. The surface trough passes through the area
that is between Anguilla and the Virgin Islands. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from 21N southward between 60W and 70W.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 180 nm to the north of the line 14N80W 13N82W 11N84W,
from the waters that are about 200 nm to the east of NE
Nicaragua, to the southeastern coastal plains and coastal waters
of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm to the north of the line that runs from the southern coast of
Haiti along 73W, to 14N80W. Isolated moderate covers the
remainder of the area that is to the northwest of the line that
runs from the southern coastal border of Haiti and the Dominican
Republic to the coastal border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of
broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds, in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from northern Colombia at
74W beyond Costa Rica.  Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the entire
Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, to the east and the southeast of the
areas of precipitation that are to the east of Nicaragua.

Fresh to strong winds are within 100 nm to the north of the
coast and Colombia between 74W and 76W.  Moderate to fresh winds
are from 17N southward between 70W and 80W. Gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet
from 79W westward,. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet
between 60W and the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail across much of the
Caribbean Sea during the next several days. A cold front will
reach the Yucatan Channel by Mon evening, and extend
from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Tue. Fresh to
locally strong winds and building seas are expected behind the
front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through Bermuda, to 30N71W, to Lake
Okeechobee in the southern part of Florida.
A surface trough is along 78W, from the coast of Cuba to the NW
Bahamas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 600 nm to the southeast of the cold front.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
20N northward from 50W eastward. The upper level trough that is
in this area is supporting a cold front that is from 1000 nm to
1700 nm to the west of Africa. A surface trough is about 210 nm
to the east of the cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 240 nm to the east and southeast of
the surface trough.

Fresh winds are from 20N northward from 50W eastward, and from
66W westward. Moderate winds or lighter are elsewhere. The sea
heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward between
20W and 60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from
20N southward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from
4 to 6 feet, mostly, from 60W westward, with some areas of 6
feet and 7 feet.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A cold front, extending from 31N69W to near Cape Canaveral in
Florida, will stall and remain across the northern forecast
waters this weekend, before moving northward. This will happen
in advance of a another cold front, that will move off the northeast
Florida coast on Mon. The second front will reach from near Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
building seas are expected behind the fronts. The wind speeds may
reach gale-force behind the second front.

$$
mt/mmt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net