[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Nov 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force NW-N winds will develop
offshore of Veracruz Fri afternoon behind a cold front that will
move through the basin. Seas will build to around 15 ft with the
gale-force winds. Conditions should diminish below gale-force Fri
evening. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extending to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from
06N15W to 02N24W to 04N34W, then resumes west of a surface trough
from 04N42W to 02N49W. The surface trough extends from 09N35W to
01N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from the equator to 11N and between 22W to 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in effect near Veracruz, Mexico.

High pressure is retreating eastward early this morning, allowing
a cold front to approach the Texas coast from the NW. Deep
moisture and broad scale lift in advance of the cold front is
leading to scattered convection over E Gulf of Mexico, mainly E of
91W. Fresh E winds prevail over the Florida Straits and far SE
Gulf, otherwise gentle moderate winds dominate. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
in the SE Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will move into the NW Gulf today,
strong winds and rough seas will follow the front over the
western and portions of the northern Gulf, reaching gale force off
Veracruz Fri. The front will stall from near Naples, Florida, to
the Bay of Campeche this weekend, before dissipating. Looking
ahead, another front will move into the northwest Gulf early Mon,
and reach from southwest Florida to the southwest Gulf by late Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends along the coast of The Yucatan Peninsula
southward into the Gulf of Honduras. This trough combined with
deep moisture and divergence aloft is leading to scattered
moderate convection for areas N of 19N and W of 83W. Elsewhere
across the Caribbean, dry conditions prevail.

The pressure gradient between the strong subtropical ridge near
Bermuda and lower pressures across N South America result in fresh
to strong trades across the central Caribbean, including the
Windward and Mona Passages, and the NW Caribbean N of 20N. The
highest winds are likely occurring S of Hispaniola. Elsewhere,
winds are mainly moderate to fresh. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are
occurring in the area of strong winds, with 5 to 7 ft seas
elsewhere, except 2 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through Fri as
high pressure north of the area shifts east, ahead of a cold front
moving into the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Winds and
seas further diminish early next week, ahead of a second cold
front moving through the Gulf late Mon and Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N46W and extends
to 23N66W, where it transitions to a shear line that continues
across the central Bahamas. Convection along the front is all now
N of 31N. Fresh to locally strong winds are occurring north of
the cold front and shear line, extending to 30N.

Fresh trades are also present S of 22 and W 55W, with strong
winds occurring between Haiti and Great Inagua in the SE Bahamas,
at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas of 6-10 ft are
present to the W of the cold front and shear line, with the
highest seas occurring N of 29N and between 50W and 58W.

Farther east, a 1012 mb low pressure is near 24N33W. A weakening
surface trough associated with the low pressure extends from the
low to 21N40W. Scattered moderate convection has developed E of
the low, from 21N to 28N between 23W and 29W.

 Fresh easterly winds are observed N of 28N and between 22W and
29W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft prevail in the central and E tropical
Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and fairly tranquil weather
conditions are present elsewhere.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, the shear line will dissipate today in advance
of a cold front that will move off the NE Florida coast Fri. The
front will stall from east of Bermuda through South Florida this
weekend, before lifting N ahead of a strong from that will move
off the NE Florida coast late Mon. The second front will reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Tue night.

$$
KONARIK
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