[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border areas of the
coastal plains of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 07N14W to 08N17W
to 10N21W. A surface trough stretches from 12N23W to 05N25W. The
ITCZ is from 05N27W to 06N44W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 11N between 15W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered along the central coast of Louisiana is
dominating Gulf weather, with dry conditions prevail. Winds are
light to gentle in the NW half of the Gulf, with moderate NE winds
occurring over the SE. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

High pressure centered along the Louisiana coast
will slide east by Tue. As it does, E winds in the SE Gulf will
increase to fresh to strong, and continue through mid-week.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu and
cross the basin into Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has stalled from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm
south and east of this boundary. The monsoon trough extends along
09N from northern Colombia to the Panama-Costa Rica border.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring to the south of this
boundary.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds dominate the Carribbean, with
localized strong winds pulsing offshore northern Colombia. Seas
average 4 to 6 ft.

A cold front passes through 31N73W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W,
across Cuba near 22N80W, to the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm to the E/SE
of the cold front, and within 400 nm to the NW of the cold
front. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The stationary front in the NW Caribbean will gradually dissipate
into tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin, pulsing to
strong off the coast of Colombia. The ridge will strengthen mid-
week, leading to increasing winds over the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N25W to 24N46W. No significant
convection is occurring with this front, but fresh to strong ENE
winds are present within 200 nm N of the boundary. Seas across a
broad area of the Atlantic from 10N to 30N between 25W and 55W
average 10 to 13 ft.

To the west, a cold front has now stalled from 32N71W through the
central Bahamas and into central Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is N of 28N between 55W and 65W. To the N and W of the
boundary, moderate to fresh NW winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 7 ft.

A mid and upper level low pressure near 18N46W is inducing
scattered moderate convection from 16N to 23N between 40W and 50W.

Elsewhere across the basin, winds are generally moderate, with
seas of 4 to 7 ft, except 1 to 3 ft near the Bahamas.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast, the northern part of the stationary front will
move east as a cold front, leaving a stationary boundary along
about 22N trailing behind it. To the north, high pressure will
build in. The gradient between the high and the lower pressure
with the stalled boundary will lead to increasing winds and
building seas mid to late week. Looking ahead, a cold front will
move into the waters off northeast Florida Fri.

$$
$$
KONARIK
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