[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 06N22W, to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from
06N30W, to 06N36W, and to 04N41W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 14N from
42W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 16N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to the Yucatan
Peninsula, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, to 23N101W in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Mexico
between 90W and 98W. The upper level wind flow is pushing the
convective debris clouds to the east and northeast.

A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb Louisiana high pressure
center to NE coastal Mexico.

Moderate to fresh winds cover the Gulf of Mexico to the west and
northwest of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds cover the
Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from
20N to 27N between 88W and 93W, and from 26N to 28N within 120
nm of the Texas Gulf coast. The sea heights range from 3 feet to
5 feet elsewhere.

A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the
Yucatan Peninsula. This front will move SE of the area Sun, and
high pressure will build into the northern Gulf. This high
pressure will lead to fresh E winds in the SE Gulf for the first
half of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, to the Yucatan
Peninsula, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, to 23N101W in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 520 nm to the east and southeast of
the cold front.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are associated with areas of
broken low level clouds that are moving with the trade winds.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from northern Colombia at
74W beyond Costa Rica.  Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent only with the monsoon
trough.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, to the east of the line that runs from
the Windward Passage to the Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong winds are within 180 nm to the north of the
coast and Colombia between 73W and 77W, and within 60 nm of the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 69W and 73W. Gentle
winds are within 180 nm of Cuba in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate
to fresh winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 5 feet.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh trade winds into
Sunday, in the south central Caribbean Sea, with pulses to
strong off NE Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. A weak cold front will pass through the Yucatan
Channel tonight, then stall in the far NW Caribbean Sea into
mid-week. Fresh NE winds are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N30W, to
24N40W, and 21N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 250 nm to the east/southeast of the front, and
within 180 nm to the northwest/north of the cold front. The sea
heights range from 10 feet to 13 feet between 30W and 50W from
20N northward. The sea heights range from 20N northward between
50W and 60W. Strong to near-gale force winds are from the
central Atlantic Ocean cold front northward between 38W and 50W.
Strong winds are from 19N northward between 50W and 60W.

A second cold front passes through 31N72W, to Andros Island in
the Bahamas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 27N to 32N between 64W and 68W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere, from the Greater Antilles
northward from 64W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the waters
that are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Fresh to strong winds elsewhere from the central Atlantic Ocean
cold front northward between 46W and 70W. Moderate to fresh
winds are from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. Gentle winds
are from 70W westward. Gentle winds are from 08N southward from
30W eastward, and within 200 nm on either side of 04N between
30W and 52W. Moderate to fresh winds are from 07N to 20N between
42W and 60W. Moderate winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic
Ocean. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from the
Bahamas northward from 60W westward. The sea heights range from
2 feet to 4 feet from the Bahamas southward. The sea heights
range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area, from
20N southward from the eastern Caribbean Sea islands eastward.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A weakening stationary front from 31N74W to the N Bahamas will
dissipate tonight, as a cold front moves off the NE Florida
coast. This cold front then will stall into Monday, from W of
Bermuda to western Cuba. Another cold front will move off the SE
U.S. Mon night then track east across the area through mid-week.

$$
mt/nr
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