[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W to 06N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is present from 03N to 12N between 12W and
39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf of Mexico,
extending from Sarasota, Florida near 27N82W to the northern
Yucatan near 21N88W, and extends in the southern Bay of Campeche
from 20N90W to 20N97W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen near the frontal boundary. Dry continental air dominates
most of the N and NW Gulf. Moderate to fresh N-NW winds are
behind the frontal boundary. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
noted ahead of the cold front. Seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent behind
the front and 2-4 ft ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast of the area
by late Sun. High pressure building in the wake of the front Sun
into Mon will lead to fresh NE winds over the southeast Gulf for
the through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough extends across the Gulf of Honduras from 16N83W to
16N88W. Divergence aloft due to the deep upper level trough over
the E US results in scattered showers in the NW Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras, N of 16N. This is impacting the Bay Islands of
Honduras, the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba. The rest of the
Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.

Scatterometer satellite data from this morning showed fresh to
locally strong trades occurring in the central Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds are present in the remainder of the
basin. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail in the SW, central and E Caribbean
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh trade winds into tonight over the south-central Caribbean,
pulsing to strong off northeast Colombia, and gentle to moderate
trade winds elsewhere. As the high gradually shifts east, a series
of weak cold fronts will enter the northwest Caribbean, then
stall and dissipate from Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras through mid-
week. Some fresh NE winds can be expected behind these fronts.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from a 1006 mb low pressure off
the Mid-Atlantic to 31N73W to the northern Bahamas near 26N78W.
A trough extends north of the Turks and Caicos from 28N69W to
22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite
imagery N of 27W and W of 68W. Over the central Atlantic, a cold
front enters the basin near 31N32W to 22N46W. A shearline follows
the front from 22N46W to 22N65W. A pre- frontal trough extends
from 27N35W to 15N38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted N of 21N between 29W and 38W. The rest of the
basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions.

Recent satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong cyclonic
winds N of 21N and between 37W to 73W. Moderate or weaker winds
prevail elsewhere. N swell results in 8-14 ft seas N of 21N and
between 28W and 62W. Seas of 5-8 ft are found elsewhere in the
basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 60W, a weak stationary front will persist
into tonight, when another cold front will move off the NE Florida
coast and merge with it through Sun. A reinforcing third front
will move from the Carolinas toward Bermuda Sun night and Mon.
This will allow the northern portion of the combined front to
shift east of the area Tue, with the southern portion stalling
from roughly 26N65W to the Florida Straits by mid week, before
dissipating through Thu.

$$
AReinhart
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