[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 14N17W to 08N24W to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from 05N35W to
03N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of
these features.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved SE of the basin overnight. Another cold
front has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico, and stretches from the
Florida Panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border. Fresh to strong
winds are occuring N of this second front, with gentle to moderate
NE winds elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring in the
Gulf, and seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 5 to 7 ft N of the front in
the NW Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will bring strong winds and rough
seas to parts of the NW and north-central Gulf into tonight. High
pressure building in the wake of the front for Sunday into Monday
will lead to fresh NE winds over the SE Gulf for the first half of
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is noted from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Convection previously associated with this weakening front as
dissipated overnight. The monsoon trough is along 09N from Panama
to Colombia, with little associated weather. Fresh to locally
strong winds are ocurring offshore Colombia, otherwise gentle to
moderate winds prevail. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 5 to 7 ft N of
Colombia in the south-central Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trade winds into tonight over the south-central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. As the high gradually
shifts east, a series of weak cold fronts will enter the northwest
Caribbean, then stall and dissipate from Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras through mid-week. Some fresh NE winds can be expected
behind these fronts

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N32W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of this front E of
44W. A surface trough extends from 26N37W to 15N35W. N of this
front, fresh to strong NE winds prevail with seas of 8 to 12 ft.

To the west, a cold front passes from 32N73W through the NW
Bahamas and into western Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection associated with this front is noted N of 25N
between 68W and 75W. Ahead of this front, moderate to fresh SE
winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle W winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail to the W.

S of 22N, generally moderate trades prevail with seas of 5 to 7
ft.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast W of 60W, the cold front will drift E. Another
cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight and merge
with the initial front Sun. The combined front, reinforcement by
yet another cold front, will stall later Mon from near Bermuda
through the SE Bahamas and into Cuba into mid-week.

$$
KONARIK
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