[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120958
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near the border with Sierra Leone, to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N19W to 05N32W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 11N to the E of 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough through the central Gulf of Mexico is inducing
scattered moderate convection in the SE Gulf in a zone off broad
atmospheric ascent. A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend
to just N of Tampico, Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms are along
this weak front S of Louisiana, otherwise no significant
convection is associated with it. N of the cold front, moderate
NE winds prevail, with mainly gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are
generally 2 to 4 ft.

The cold front will weaken and stall in the SE Gulf by tonight. A
reinforcing front will enter the basin late tonight and sweep
through the basin Sat. By Sat night into Sun, high pressure will
build into the northern Gulf, and strengthen into Mon. This will
support fresh to locally strong winds late this weekend into early
next week across much of the Gulf. The high pressure will shift
east of the region Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection, in association with deep southerly
flow to the SE of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico, is noted
between Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, only isolated
quick moving tradewind showers dominate the basin. The monsoon
trough extends east across Panama along 09N to northern Colombia,
with no associated precipitation. Seas average 3 to 5 ft, with
locally 6 ft seas occurring offshore N Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to
support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the
Caribbean, with occasionally locally strong winds off Colombia
today. The high will shift east later today, ahead of a cold front
that will stall over the Yucatan Channel Sat. A second front will
move through the Gulf Sun then stall from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by Sun night. Looking ahead, the front will shift
eastward into the Windward Passage into Tue as reinforcing high
pressure builds north of the area behind a third front moving
through the western Atlantic. This pattern will support fresh NE
winds across parts of the northwest Caribbean Mon and Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N39W to 22N59W. The surface trough
that had continued west from the edge of the cold front has
dissipated overnight. To the E of 58W and within 150 nm of the
frontal boundary, scattered moderate convection is occurring.
Broad ascent to the east of an upper level trough and associated
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate
convection N of 23N and W of 73W, including the Bahamas.

Much farther E, a 1013 mb low pressure is noted near 32N19W and a
surface trough extends from 29N34W to 19N33W. Neither feature is
leading to any significant convection.

Fresh NE winds are occurring N and W of the cold front, to as far
W as about 70W. Farther W, moderate S winds prevail. To the E of
the cold front, gentle to moderate trades prevail. N of 23N and E
of 60W, seas are 8 to 11 ft, with seas of 5 to 7 ft dominating the
remainder of the basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this
morning, then stall. Another cold front will move off the coast
Sat, then stall from near Bermuda through eastern Cuba Sun.
Looking ahead, a third, stronger front will move off the northeast
Florida coast late Sun night, eventually overtaking the stalled
front, and will stall from 27N65W to the Windward Passage late Mon
and Tue.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net