[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092105 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2105 UTC Tue Nov 09 2021

Updated Atlantic Ocean section to include latest information
on the Cumbre Vieja volcano

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
07N11W to 05N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ per latest
scatterometer data. The ITCZ then continues to 02N41W to 01N44W.
A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ from 10N30W to
08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N to 06N
between 10W-18W and within 60 nm north of the trough between
15W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, with a
1028 mb surface high pressure centered over eastern Mississippi.
Latest ASCAT data shows gentle winds over the western Gulf north
of 20N and west of 90W, while gentle to moderate northeast to
east winds are seen elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range
throughout the basin. Isolated showers are possible over the far
NW Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf
waters through Wed promoting gentle to moderate northeast to
east winds. Southerly return flow will set-up across the NW Gulf
on Wed night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the
region on Thu. The front will remain nearly stationary over the
northern Gulf on Fri. Reinforcing high pressure will push the
front across the Gulf on Sat, reaching the southeastern part of
the Gulf by Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front over the western Atlantic stretches southwestward
to the north coast of Hispaniola, where it transitions to a
stationary front to central Jamaica and becomes a weakening
stationary front to just east of the coast of Nicaragua at 12N84W.
Latest ASCAT depicts fresh north winds behind the front over most
of the northwestern Caribbean, except for locally strong N winds
off the southern coast of Nicaragua, from 11N to 13N between 82W-
84W. Seas with these winds are in the 4-6 ft range. The eastern
segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is over northwestern
Colombia from near 11N74W to low pressure of 1009 near 09N77W and
southwest from there to the over the Pacific area south of
Panama. Low-level wind convergence near the southern part of the
weakening stationary front is helping to enhance scattered
moderate convection that is occurring south of 13N and west of 76W
to along the coast of Panama and southern Nicaragua. Gentle to
moderate trades are noted elsewhere along with seas of about
2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weakening stationary will
likely transition to shear line by late this afternoon, then
dissipate afterwards. Fresh north to northeast winds will
persist within about 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua through
tonight. As high pressure builds north of the Caribbean Sea,
expect for increasing trades across the south-central Caribbean
as well as in the Gulf of Venezuela beginning tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...Updated

A cold front extends from near 31N59W to 25N65W and to the north
coast of Hispaniola, where it transitions to a stationary front
into the the western Caribbean Sea. A secondary and more
pronounced cold front extends from a 998 mb storm center that is
north of the area near 35N64W southwestward to 31N65W and to
26N73W. The latest ASCAT pass indicates fresh southwest to west
winds north of 28N between 61W-65W and similar moderate to fresh
northwest to north winds north of 28N between 66W-70W. Seas of
9-13 ft in north to northeast swell are over these waters per
latest altimeter data.

Farther east, a trough extends from near 31N32W to 22N33W and to
12N34W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough. Another
trough exetnds from near 10N31W to 07N37W. ASCAT data shows
moderate to fresh east to southeast winds from 08N to 12N
between 30W-34W.

High pressure covers the remainder of the area east of the first
cold front described above.

For the forecast, the first cold front will become stationary by
early on Wed as the second cold front merges with it. Large seas
follow both fronts generally covering the waters north of 22N.
These seas will gradually subside from east to west  over the
next couple of days. The front will remain over the southeastern
waters while gradually weakening. The next cold front will move
off the northeast Florida coast on Fri, then stall. Reinforcing
high pressure will push the front across the region on Sat.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
An ash emission is ongoing. Satellite imagery and webcams depict
medium ash concentration in the western vicinity of the volcano,
while low concentration is further away. Marine and aviation
interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the
latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at website
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Aguirre
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