[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 03N21W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ
then continues to 02N41W. A surface trough is analyzed north
of the ITCZ from 08N36W to 10N29W with scattered moderate
convection extending about 90 nm on either side of the trough.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south
of the monsoon trough along the coast of Liberia from 01N-07N
and E of 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, with a
1025 mb surface high pressure centered over southwestern
Mississippi. ASCAT wind data pass continues to identify gentle
winds over the W Gulf north of 20N and west of 90W. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are evident over the eastern Gulf to
the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas ranged between 2 to 3 ft across the
W and 2 to 6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge north of the Gulf will continue
through Wed night, promoting generally quiet conditions except
moderate to fresh NE winds west of Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula through this afternoon. On Thu, southerly return flow in
the W Gulf will become moderate to fresh. By Thu night, a weak
cold front will enter the NW Gulf and should move quickly across
the N waters on Fri.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front over the western Atlantic crosses western tip of
Hispaniola to Jamaica, where it transitions to a stationary front
and continues SW to the coast of Nicaragua near 11N83W. Scattered
tstorms are along the front. ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds behind
the front covering the NW Caribbean, except for locally strong N
winds off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua, N of 11N to 17N
between 80W to 83W. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are occurring in the strong
wind area, with 3 to 6 ft seas elsewhere behind the front. Pacific
monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia W across Panama and
Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the area
S of 11N and between 77W to 83W. Fresh to locally strong trades
are also seen off the coast of NE Colombia and NW Venezuela, where
seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere
with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, stationary front extending from Jamaica to the
SW Caribbean will gradually weaken today. Fresh to strong N winds
within 60 NM of the coast of Nicaragua west of the front will
diminish in the early morning hours as front weakens. As the
Bermuda High rebuilds north of the area, the trades will increase
some over the next few days with fresh to strong NE to E trades
occurring just north of Colombia and Venezuela, primarily late
tonight and early morning hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to 19N71W near the western tip
of Hispaniola and continues as a stationary front into the
western Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate showers and tstorms are
found along the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds W of the
front, extending to 76W. N to NE moderate to fresh winds are noted
W of 76W and along the coast of Florida. Altimeter data indicated
higher W of the front with seas from 12 to 15 ft N of 26N.

On the forecast, the strong extratropical low pressure north of
the area will gradually move eastward for the next few days. This
low is producing strong to near gale W to NW winds north of 29N,
which will progress eastward and weaken by tonight for our waters
west of 65W. Large seas continue north of the Bahamas and will
steadily diminish through Wed. By Wed night, E to SE winds will
drop to fresh or weaker over our waters and continue through Fri
night. A weak cold front should move across the N waters Sat.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Torres
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