[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Tue Nov 9 00:04:11 CST 2021

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Nov 9 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 07N11W, to 05N20W, and 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W, from 02N to 03N between 22W and 30W, and from 03N to 04N
between 30W and 42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough from 15W eastward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is in the coastal plains of Brazil from 02N to 04N between
50W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
10N southward from 60W eastward, away from the 10N29W-to-08N36W
surface trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from the SE half of Louisiana, into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 25N to 28N between 83W and
86W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 90W eastward.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds cover the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet.

A ridge north of the Gulf will continue through Wed night,
promoting generally quiet conditions except moderate to fresh NE
winds west of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula through Tue. On
Thu, southerly return flow in the W Gulf will become moderate to
fresh. By Thu night, a weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf
and should move quickly across the N waters on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 31N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
22N70W, across NW Haiti, and to 19N76W in the Windward Passage.
A stationary front continues from the Windward Passage, to
16N80W, across Jamaica, to the coastal waters of SE Nicaragua.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong is within 420 nm to the east of the stationary
front, from 14N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is within 60 nm to the north of the stationary front from 16N to
20N.

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Keys, to the
Yucatan Channel and the Yucatan Peninsula, to Guatemala and the
western sections of Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 09N to 10N, from northern Colombia
at 74W beyond parts of southern Costa Rica. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is in northern Colombia from 09N to
11N between 73W and 75W.

Strong northerly winds are within 60 nm to 75 nm of the coast of
Central America from eastern Honduras to SE Nicaragua.
Moderate-to-fresh N-to-NE winds are elsewhere to the west of the
line that runs from SE Cuba to NW Jamaica, to NE Costa Rica.
Gentle or lighter winds are from 16N northward from Jamaica
eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 80W westward. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward, in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3
feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

A stationary front extending from Haiti to the SW Caribbean Sea
will weaken gradually through Tue. Fresh to strong N winds
within 60 NM of the coast of Nicaragua west of the front will
persist tonight and diminish Tue. As the Bermuda High rebuilds
north of the area, the trades will increase some during the next
few days with fresh to strong NE to E trades occurring just
north of Colombia and Venezuela, primarily late night and early
morning hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N61W, to 22N70W, across NW Haiti,
and to 19N76W in the Windward Passage. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm to 120 nm to the east
of the cold front from 26N northward.

An upper level trough is along 31N25W 24N30W 19N35W 15N40W. A
surface trough is along 31N31W 24N33W 16N34W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong is
within 600 nm to the south of the line 28N13W 27N30W 25N31W
25N37W.

A second surface trough is along 10N29W 08N36W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm to
the northeast and north of the surface trough. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 240 nm to the south of the surface
trough.

A stationary front is from 32N to 33N between 39W and 45W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N between 36W and 44W.

Strong to near-gale force winds are from 29N northward between
58W and 78W, with the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds are
within 300 nm of the coast of Africa from 23N to 30N. Moderate
NE winds are from 14N southward between 41W and 56W. Fresh to
strong winds are from 08N to 13N between 25W and 38W, near the
10N29W 08N36W surface trough. Gentle or lighter winds are
elsewhere. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 61W
eastward. The sea heights range from 10 feet to 14 feet, from the
NW Bahamas northward from 74W westward. The sea heights range from
4 feet to 6 feet from the NW Bahamas southward to the Florida
Straits. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet from 26N
northward between 66W and 74W. The sea heights range from 3 feet
to 7 feet elsewhere between 60W and 70W. The sea heights range
from 5 feet to 7 feet from 30W eastward. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 5 feet between 30W and 60W.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-
France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

A strong extratropical low pressure system north of the area
will gradually move eastward for the next few days. This low is
producing strong to near gale W to NW winds north of 29N, which
will progress eastward and weaken by Tue night for the Atlantic
Ocean west of 65W. Very large seas continue north of the Bahamas
and will steadily diminish on Tue and Wed. By Wed night, E to SE
winds will drop to fresh or weaker, and continue through Fri
night. A weak cold front should move across the N waters on Sat.

$$
mt/torres
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