[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 8 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 09N15W to 07N20W to 07N24W then resumes W of
a 1011 mb low near 06N31W to 06N42W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate
convection associated with the low centered near 06N28W is from
01N to 12N between 17W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 04N to 13N between 30W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, with a
1026 mb surface high pressure centered in the border between
Mississippi and Arkansas near 33N91W. Latest ASCAT wind data show
mainly light to gentle NE winds E of 90W with locally moderate to
fresh winds between Crystal River and Sarasota E of 84W. Light to
gentle variable winds area over the western half of the basin,
except for moderate N to NE winds in the Bay of Campeche
associated with a surface trough. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over W of
90W and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue across the gulf
through Wed night, promoting generally quiet conditions except
moderate to fresh NE winds west of Florida today. On Thu, S return
flow in the W Gulf will become moderate to fresh. By Thu night, a
weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf and should move quickly
across the N waters on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front over the western Atlantic crosses the eastern tip
of Cuba into the western Caribbean as a stationary front to
12N83W, near the coast of Nicaragua. Scattered tstorms are along
the front. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds behind the
front covering the NW Caribbean, except for locally strong N winds
off the coast of Honduras, from 15N to 18.5N between 81W-86W.
Seas of 6 to 7 ft are occurring in the strong wind area, with 3 to
6 ft seas elsewhere behind the front. Fresh to locally strong
trades are also seen off the coast of NE Colombia and NW
Venezuela, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are
noted elsewhere with 2 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds follow the
Front in the western Caribbean. The front will gradually drift
eastward through Tue while dissipating. Fresh to strong north
winds will remain within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, in
the wake of the front, Mon through Tue. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail across the east and central Caribbean through
mid-week, except of moderate to fresh trade winds near the coast
of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. High pressure builds north
of the area and migrates eastward across the western Atlantic
strengthening the trade winds across the basin late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for more information on
the Gale Warning north of 30N between 70W-76W.

A cold front extends from 31N66W to 20N74W near the eastern tip
of Cuba. Isolated moderate showers and tstorms are found within
120 nm ahead of the front. A second/reinforcing front has formed
from 31N69W to 26N78W near Grand Bahama Island. Gale force W to NW
winds are north of 29N and west of the reinforcing front to 76W.
Strong NW to N winds are elsewhere to the NW of the reinforcing
front, extending to the coast of Florida. Strong to near-gale
force SW winds are within 90 nm east of the reinforcing front,
north of 28N. Fresh S to SW winds are within 120 nm east of the
leading front, north of 23N. Observations near the low pressure
indicate seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring north of 25N and
west of 65W, with a maximum of 20 ft near 32N73W.

Farther E, an upper-level low near 24N36W is inducing scattered
moderate tstorms from 19N-27N between 30W-38W. A 1020 mb surface
high pressure near 31N40W sits along a ridge that extends
southwestward to the Dominican Republic. Gentle winds are near
the ridge. Moderate trade winds prevail in the tropical
latitudes, south of the ridge. Seas are 3 to 5 ft from 15N-30N
between 35W-60W, 5 to 7 ft from 05N-15N between 40W-60W, and 6
to 8 ft north of 15N and east of 30W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the two cold fronts will continue
progressing eastward as the low pressure north of the area moves
E to ENE at 10-15 kt over the next couple days. Winds and seas
west of 75W will begin to diminish late today. In the wake of
this system, high pressure will build over the Carolinas Wed,
leading to moderate to fresh trade winds over the W Atlantic.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
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