[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 070241
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 07 2021

Wanda has continued to weaken tonight. Only small bursts of
convection have occurred during the past several hours, and Wanda's
low-level center is starting to move away from the ongoing
convection in its southeastern quadrant. A 2220 UTC ASCAT-A pass
revealed a small area of 30-kt winds in this portion of the cyclone,
but the infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled in this area
since that data was collected. The initial intensity is lowered to
35 kt for this advisory, which lies on the higher end of the most
recent satellite estimates.

Wanda is beginning to move faster toward the northeast, and its
initial motion is estimated to be 050/12 kt. The cyclone will
continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within
the strengthening, deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with a
deepening mid-latitude low pressure system over the northern
Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the previous
advisory.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for any further tropical development of Wanda. As the
cyclone races northeastward, it will encounter decreasing SSTs and
increasing deep-layer southerly shear within a dry mid-level
environment. Thus, Wanda's convective structure is unlikely to
improve over the next 24 h. The intensity guidance suggests the peak
winds could increase slightly later today, but this is most likely a
product of the system's increasing forward speed and its merger with
an approaching front. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has
been lowered from the previous one.  Wanda is still forecast to
merge with the front and become extratropical tonight, then
dissipate over the northeastern Atlantic on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 37.8N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 39.8N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 44.4N  28.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/1200Z 48.9N  21.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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