[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.0N 37.8W at 06/2100 UTC
or 520 nm W of the Azores moving E at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 35N
to 37N between 36W and 38W. Some strengthening is possible through
Sunday. After that time, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal
system Sunday night and dissipate Monday or Monday night. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

West Atlantic Storm Warning: As of 06/2100 UTC a 1004 mb low
pressure is located in the Atlantic near 30N79W. A warm front
extends east-northeastward from the low to beyond 31N78W. A cold
front curves southwestward from this low across the northern
Bahamas to central Cuba. Gale to storm force winds prevails N of
28N and W of the low with seas from 13 to 19 ft. This low will
continue to deepen with gale to storm force winds persisting
through tonight, and seas building to 20 ft. As this low pulls
ENE on Sun, storm force winds W of 77W should decrease to gale
force and will persist through Sun night. Seas will also gradually
subside starting Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force NNE winds continue across
the offshore waters near Agadir N of 30N between the Moroccan
coast and 12W. Meteo-France is forecasting gale force winds to
continue in this area through at least 07/1200 UTC. Seas will be 9
to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough ends just off the Senegal coast near 13N18W
with no significant weather. The ITCZ extends westward from
05N11W to 05N35W to the coast of central Guyana. Scattered
moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 17W and 40W and
from 04N to 09N W of 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a surface ridge building across the
area, and a low pressure deepening over the offshore waters of NE
Florida continue to support moderate to fresh N winds over the
eastern half of the gulf with locally strong winds still possible
near the Tampa Bay area. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this area. Gentle
to moderate N to NE winds winds are over the western half of the
basin with seas mainly in the 3-5 ft range. Otherwise, a surface
trough is off the coast of Veracruz into the western Bay of
Campeche supporting scattered to isolated showers. Another surface
trough is to the N of the Yucatan Peninsula supporting similar
shower activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high and the
low pressure located E of Florida will support moderate to fresh
northerly winds across the eastern Gulf through Mon. Mainly gentle
to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. A ridge will persist
over the Gulf region trough at least Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front curves SW from Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba to NE
Nicaragua. Heavy showers and tstms are ahead and behind the cold
front from E Cuba to Belize adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh N
winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range are behind the cold front and
along Nicaragua adjacent waters. Over the eastern half of the
Caribbean, moderate to fresh winds are observed with strong winds
continuing in the Gulf of Venezuela and NW coast of Colombia. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range in this area of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow
the front, which is forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to just
off the coast of Nicaragua by Sun morning, and from the Windward
Passage to the SW Caribbean near 10N82W by Mon morning. Afterwards,
the front will begin to stall. The fresh northerly winds and
building seas will spread across the NW Caribbean through early
next week following the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
forecast off the Nicaragua coast Mon through Tue after the
frontal passage. High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to
support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the eastern and
central Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Storm
Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast and on the Gale Warning
offshore of Morocco.

As of 06/2100 UTC a 1004 mb low pressure is located near 30N79W.
A warm front extends east-northeastward from the low to beyond
31N78W. A cold front curves southwestward from this low across
the northern Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms
are across the central and southern Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank
and NE of the Bahamas to nearly 65W. The remainder subtropical
Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores high and
fair weather.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low is expected to move N of
the forecast area by tonight with the cold front extending from
31N76W to eastern Cuba on Sun, and from 31N70W to near the
Windward passage by Sun night. Frequent gusts to storm force are
expected to continue across the waters N of 29N and W of 80W
through tonight, with gale force winds persisting N of 28N W of
77W through Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds with gusts to
gale force will continue N of 27N between 65W and 77W through Tue.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
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