[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.0N 37.8W at 06/2100 UTC
or 520 nm W of the Azores moving E at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 35N
to 37N between 36W and 38W. Some strengthening is possible through
Sunday. After that time, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal
system Sunday night and dissipate Monday or Monday night. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

West Atlantic Storm Warning: As of 06/2100 UTC a 1004 mb low
pressure is located in the Atlantic near 30N79W. A warm front
extends east-northeastward from the low to beyond 31N78W. A cold
front curves southwestward from this low across the northern
Bahamas to central Cuba. Gale to storm force winds prevails N of
28N and W of the low with seas from 13 to 19 ft. This low will
continue to deepen with gale to storm force winds persisting
through tonight, and seas building to 20 ft. As this low pulls
ENE on Sun, storm force winds W of 77W should decrease to gale
force and will persist through Sun night. Seas will also gradually
subside starting Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: ASCAT data from around 06/1400 UTC
show gale-force NNE winds across the offshore waters near Agadir
N of 30N between the Moroccan coast and 12W. Meteo-France is
forecasting gale force winds to continue in this area through at
least 07/1200 UTC. Seas will be 9 to 11 ft in the area. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at
website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough ends just off the Senegal coast near 14N18W with
no significant weather. An ITCZ extends westward from 06N15W to
07N55W, just N of Suriname. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted near the ITCZ from 04N to 09N between 15W and
45W, and farther W along N coast of Guyana, Suriname, French
Guiana and adjacent Atlantic waters.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface troughing is causing scattered showers over the
central and SW corner of the Gulf. Tighter gradient between a
strong low pressure off the NE Florida coast and a high over the
Tennessee-Kentucky border is sustaining fresh to strong NNW to N
winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft across the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh
N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the central and
SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate N to
NNE winds with seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the W Gulf, including
the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, high pressure currently just N of the Gulf
coast states will build southward over the Gulf waters as the
cold front near the Florida Atlantic coast continues to push
eastward. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the
E Gulf today. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected
across the E Gulf through Mon while mainly gentle to moderate
winds are forecast elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front curves southwestward from near central Cuba to
the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 100 nm SE of the front.
Farther SE, a surface trough is causing similar conditions from E
Cuba southwestward across Jamaica and the SW Caribbean Basin to
the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh N winds and
seas at 5 to 7 ft are found behind the cold front over the NW
basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 5 to 6 ft are
evident over the central basin. NE to E trades and seas at 3 to 4
ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas
building to 8 ft in the Yucatan Channel will follow the front
and reach from central Cuba southwestward to the Honduras-Nicaragua
border later tonight, and then from the Windward Passage to
southern Nicaragua by Sun. These conditions will continue to spread
across the NW Caribbean through early next week behind the front.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast off the Nicaragua
coast Mon through Tue after the frontal passage. High pressure
over the Atlantic continues to support moderate to locally fresh
winds over the eastern and central Caribbean through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the Storm
Warning off the Georgia-NE Florida coast and on the Gale Warning
offshore of Morocco.

As of 06/1500 UTC a 1006 mb low pressure is located in the
Atlantic about 80 nm SE of Jacksonville Florida near 29N80W. A
warm front extends east-northeastward from the low to beyond
31N78W. A cold front curves southwestward from this low across the
Florida Keys and W Cuba. Moderate rain with embedded scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near the low and warm
front N of 29N between 75W and the Georgia-NE Florida coast.
Convergent southerly winds farther E of the cold front, and S of
the warm front are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
from the Bahamas northeastward to SW of Bermuda. Farther E over
the central Atlantic, a mid to upper-level low SW of the Azores
near 31N35W is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms N of 22N between 28W and 42W. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin.

Fresh to strong ESE to SE winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are
present N of 27N between 69W and 74W; fresh to strong NE trades
and seas at 8 to 10 ft are noted near the Canary Islands N of 27N
between the NW African coast and 16W. Farther S from 20N to 27N,
moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are seen between
68W and the Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE trades and seas of 6 to
8 ft are present between the Western Sahara-Mauritania coast and
16W. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft dominate N of 20N
between 16W and 68W. Gentle to moderate ENE to NE trades and seas
near 4 ft exist from 07N to 20N between the central African coast
and the Lesser Antilles/S American coast. Gentle ESE to SE trades
and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 65W, the low off the NE Florida coast
is expected to move N of the forecast area by tonight with the
cold front from 31N77W to central Cuba, and from near Bermuda to
E Cuba by Sun night. Frequent gusts to storm force, are expected
to continue across the waters N of 29N and W of 80W through
tonight, with gale-force winds persisting N of 28N, W of 77W
through Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds with gusts to gale
force will continue N of 27N between 65W and 77W through Tue.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021.
Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing
situation by reading the latest Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by
Meteo-France at website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

$$
Ramos
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