[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 42.4N 39.2W at 04/2100 UTC
or 620 nm WNW of the Azores moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found
from 40N to 47N between 38W and 43W. The NE to E is expected
through tonight, with turn southeastward and southward by Sat.
Little change in intensity is forecast through Fri afternoon
before some slight strengthening Fri night and Sat. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: a low pressure has
developed along a frontal boundary over the W central Gulf. As
this low tracks ENE across the Gulf into N Florida through Friday
night. A tightening pressure gradient between this low and a
ridge of high pressure behind the front over the SE U.S. will
cause strong to near gale winds, with frequent gusts to gale
force, across the NE Gulf late Fri. As the low moves across N
Florida toward the Atlantic late Fri night and Sat morning, these
strong to gale winds should shift northeastward into the
Atlantic offshore waters of N Florida.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-
Mauritania border at 15N16W to 15N20W. Farther SW, the ITCZ
stretches from 03N21W to 07N31W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 35W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf by Fri night.

A stationary front extends from north Florida to the western
Gulf. Active convection prevails across much of the Gulf waters
north of 23N. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the western
Gulf with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the front.
Light to gentle winds prevail east of the front. Seas are in the
4-7 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, frontal system extends across the basin. Low
pressure will continue to develop along the front over the
central Gulf tonight, then move to the northeast into central
Florida through late Fri. A cold front will follow, moving
southeast of the Gulf by late Sat. Strong to near gale force
winds are possible over the northeast Gulf by late Fri as the low
moves inland, with frequent gusts to gale force expected. Winds
and seas will diminish over the western Gulf Sat through early
next week as high pressure builds north of the area following the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A couple of surface troughs over the eastern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, as well as over W Cuba and nearby Caribbean
waters are producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 3-5
ft, are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to
gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the surface trough over the northwest Caribbean
continues weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish. High
pressure over the Atlantic is supporting moderate winds and seas
over the eastern and central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and
building seas will follow a cold front moving through the Yucatan
Channel Fri night. The front will reach from central Cuba to
eastern Honduras Sat night, and from eastern Cuba to the coast of
Nicaragua by late Sun. The front start to stall by Mon as it
drifts eastward into the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for Fri night and Sat.

A stationary front extends from near 31N75W to northern Florida.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is near and
within 210 nm se of the front. Farther east, a surface trough
extends from 31N51W to 25N48W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm west of the trough. Another trough extends from
31N30W to 21N35W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is within 60 nm east of the trough north of 28N. Fresh
to locally strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail west of the
stationary front. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft are
noted over much of the remaining tropical and subtropical waters
north of 20N. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, a stationary front extends across
the coastal waters off northeast Florida. Low pressure will move
northward along the front Fri night into Sat, supporting winds to
gale force in the offshore waters of northeast Florida through
late Sat. The low pressure will lift to the northeast through
Mon, with the trailing front reaching from near Bermuda to
central Cuba by Mon night.

$$
AL
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