[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 41.9N 39.6W at 04/01500 UTC
or 625 nm WNW of the Azores and moving N at 5 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found within 120 nm in the NW semicircle and within 70 nm in the
SE semicircle. A gradual turn toward the NE and then E is expected
through tonight, then follow by SE to S with increasing speed on
Fri. Little change in intensity is forecast through Fri afternoon
before some slight strengthening Fri night and Sat. Please see
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Gale Warnings: a low pressure has
developed along a frontal boundary over the W central Gulf. As
this low tracks ENE across the Gulf into N Florida through Friday
night, a mid to upper-level trough in the vicinity will strengthen
this low. Tightening pressure gradient between this low and a
ridge of high pressure behind the front over the SE U.S. will
cause strong to gale winds across the NE Gulf Fri night. As the
low moves across N Florida toward the Atlantic late Fri night and
Sat morning, these strong to gale winds should shift northeastward
into the offshore waters of N Florida, Georgia and S Carolina.
For more detail information, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-
Mauritania border at 16N16W to just E of the Cabo Verde Islands at
15N20W. Farther SW, an ITCZ stretches from 03N20W to 05N44W, N of
Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon
trough over Guinea-Bissau. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen near the ITCZ from 02N to 09N between 22W and
45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for the NE Gulf by Fri night.

A cold front curves eastward from N Mexico to a 1015 mb low
pressure SE of Brownsville, Texas near 25N96W; then continues
east-northeastward as a stationary front across the N central Gulf
to N Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
near the low over the W central and NW Gulf. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 100 nm S of the
stationary front. A surface trough over W Cuba is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Florida
Keys and Straits. Latest satellite scatterometer data and buoy
observations reveal moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to
NNW winds over the W central and NW Gulf with seas at 4 to 6 ft.
Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds are present
across the N central and NE Gulf with seas at 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to
moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail for the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move from the NW Gulf into
the SW Gulf through early Fri. Low pressure along the front will
move toward the ENE into central and N Florida through late Fri.
The front will follow, and move over the SE Gulf by late Sat.
Strong to near-gale force winds are possible over the NE Gulf by
late Fri as the low moves inland, with frequent gusts to gale
force possible. Winds and seas will diminish over the W Gulf Sat
through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area
following the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Modest surface troughing over the Bay of Honduras and E coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as over W Cuba and nearby Caribbean
waters are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Convergent trades are causing similar conditions over E Dominican
Republic. Mainly gentle E trades with seas at 2 to 3 ft are
evident across the W basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades
and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, a trough over the NW Caribbean is weakening,
allowing winds and seas to diminish. High pressure over the
Atlantic is supporting moderate winds and seas over the E and
central Caribbean. Fresh N winds and building seas will follow a
cold front moving through the Yucatan Channel Fri night. The front
will reach from central Cuba to E Honduras Sat night, and from
E Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua by late Sun. The front starts to
stall by Mon as it drifts eastward into the Windward Passage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about
the gale warning for Fri night and Sat.

A stationary front reaches east-northeast from near Jacksonville,
Florida to beyond 31N at 76W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present near and up to 120 nm S of this front.
Over the E central Atlantic, a surface trough extends north-
northeastward from 20N37W to beyond 31N at 31W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 80 nm along both sides of this trough.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the basin.

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are found N
of the stationary front to beyond 31N between 77W and the N
Florida- Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate W to SW winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft exist S of this front to 28N between 77W and the
central Florida coast. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds with seas
of 5 to 7 ft are evident near the surface trough N of 27N between
26W and 32W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and seas at 4 to
5 ft are noted N of 20N between the African coast and the Bahamas.
Light to gentle with locally moderate NE to SE trades and seas of
4 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, a mostly stationary front extends
across the coastal waters off NE Florida. Low pressure will move
northward along the front Fri night into Sat, supporting winds to
gale force in the offshore waters of NE Florida through late Sat.
The low pressure will lift to the NE through Mon, with the
trailing front reaching from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon
night.

$$

Chan
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