[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 041449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021

Wanda continues to maintain bands of moderately deep convection
near the center, and the cyclone continues to display anticyclonic
outflow.  However, cold air clouds are wrapping around the southern
side of the circulation, and in the big picture Wanda appears to be
embedded in a larger-scale baroclinic low.  A recent ASCAT-A
overpass suggests that the maximum winds are now near 40 kt, which
is between the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is northward or 000/5 kt.  During the next
couple of days, a narrow mid-latitude ridge is forecast to build to
the northwest of the cyclone, which should cause Wanda to turn
southeastward and southward by the 48 h point.  By 60-72 h, another
mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should finally cause the
system to begin to accelerate northeastward, with this motion
persisting through the end of the forecast period.  The new
guidance shows a little more southward motion by 48 h than the
previous guidance, and the new forecast track is adjusted a little
southward near that time.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 h as Wanda
remains over sea surface temperatures of near 20C.  By 48 h, the
southward motion brings the center over slightly warmer water, and
some modest strengthening is possible by that time.  Many of the
guidance models show more strengthening and a higher intensity than
the official forecast between 48-72 h, and some adjustment may be
needed to that part of the forecast in later advisories if this
trend persists.  By 96 h, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal
system and become extratropical over the northeastern Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 41.9N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 42.1N  38.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 41.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 39.1N  37.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 38.1N  37.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 38.7N  36.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 41.0N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 48.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 51.5N  13.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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