[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031809
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 38.8N 39.8W at 03/1500 UTC
or 605 nm W of the Azores and moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
found up to 90 nm N and NE, and up to 50 nm SW of the center. This
general motion should continue through Thu before turning SE and
slowing down Thu night. Little change in intensity is forecast
during the next couple of days. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction
Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across Costa Rica and Panama:
A developing area of low pressure located about 105 nm W of Costa
Rica near 8.5N 86.1W is expected to enhance the monsoon trough
across Costa Rica and Panama through Friday morning. This will
increase the chance of heavy rain across these nations, especially
near the SW and S coast which could result in local flooding and
mudslides. As this low moves further W into the the E Pacific
starting Fri, its influence on the monsoon trough will decrease.
Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
Senegal coast near 15N17W to 10N21W. No significant convection is
seen near the monsoon trough. Farther SW, the ITCZ extends
westward from 04N25W to 05N35W, then from 03N37W to 02N42W N of
Brazil. A 1012 mb low pressure system is located between these two
ITCZ near 05N36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed near the low and ITCZ 02N to 08N  between 25W and
40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A modest stationary front extends eastward from near Galveston,
Texas passing S of New Orleans to the Big Bend area of Florida.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are found near this
feature with no significant weather. A surface trough over the E
central Gulf is triggering scattered showers from 25N to 26N
between 84W and 86W. The N portion of another surface trough is
producing similar conditions across the Florida Keys and Straits
of Florida. A 1020 mb high centering near the E coast of central
Mexico dominates much of the Gulf with light to gentle winds and
seas at 2 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the N Gulf will shift E
today ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf tonight.
Fresh winds will follow the front through Thu as it reaches from
the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by late Thu.
Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the SE Gulf ahead of
the front by late Thu. The low will deepen by late Fri as it moves
into the NE Gulf, with the front extending from the low to the
SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are
possible over the NE Gulf by Fri night as the low moves onshore
over N Florida. Winds and seas will diminish over the W Gulf Sat
as the front moves SE of the area. High pressure will build N of
the area Sun following the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section for information on
potential heavy rain across Costa Rica and Panama.

A robust surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is coupling with
divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the NW basin, including the E coast of Belize
and N coast of Honduras. This activity is forecast to spread
inland into S Belize, N Honduras and E Guatemala Thu and Fri.
Heavy downpours from strong thunderstorms will increase the chance
of local flooding in rivers and valleys. Moderate to local fresh
NE winds with seas at 4 to 5 ft are found over the W Gulf of
Honduras. Please consult products from your local meteorological
offices for more details.

Another surface trough over the Cayman Islands and W Cuba is
producing scattered showers isolated thunderstorms across the
nearby Caribbean waters. An upper-level low just NW of Puerto
Rico near 20N68W is causing similar conditions across W Dominican
Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and nearby waters.
Mostly moderate trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft are present over the
central Caribbean Basin. Light to gentle trades and seas of 2 to 4
ft prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds over the W Gulf of
Honduras will diminish through early afternoon. A weak pressure
gradient will support gentle to moderate trade winds across the
central and eastern basin into Sat. A cold front will move into
the NW Caribbean by early Sat, then follow by moderate to fresh N
winds. The front will reach from E Cuba to E Honduras by late
Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough runs southwestward from W of Bermuda across
31N72W to N of the central Bahamas at 27N74W. Scattered showers
are noted near and SE of this feature N of 24N between 61W and
75W. Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms well NW of the Cabo Verde Islands N of
22N between 29W and 34W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional convection in the basin.

Larger N to NW swell produced by Tropical Storm Wanda over the N
Atlantic is generating seas of 6 to 9 ft N of 26N between 30W and
57W. Otherwise, light to gentle with local moderate winds and seas
at 4 to 6 ft dominate N of 20N between the NW African coast and
the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and
seas of 4 to 5 ft are seen from 10N to 20N between the central
African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to SE
trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the
basin.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure N of the area will
support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through today. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving into the
waters off NE Florida Thu night. A low will develop along the
front by Fri evening and strong to near gale force are anticipated
to develop over the waters off NE Florida through Sat. Frequent
gusts to gale force are possible Fri night off NE Florida. The
cold front will extend from Bermuda to E Cuba by Sun night.

$$

Chan
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