[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0505 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Wanda is centered near 37.3N 40.3W at 03/0300 UTC
or 635 nm W of the Azores moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Wanda is producing scattered moderate convection
within 150 nm of the center. Little change in intensity is
forecast during the next couple of days. A northward to north-
northeastward motion should continue through early Thursday. An
eastward motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated by late
Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward motion by Thursday
night. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://ocean.weather.gov/mobile/mobile_product.php?id=NFDHSFAT1
for more details.

Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America:
An area of low pressure located about 100 nm W of Costa Rica is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some of the
storm activity is affecting the Pacific coast of Costa Rica, which
could result in flooding and mudslides. The system is forecast to
move further into the the eastern Pacific basin over the next
couple of days. In addition, a surface trough in the Gulf of
Honduras is forecast to support rainfall in parts of Honduras,
Guatemala and Belize through early Friday. A moist and unstable
atmosphere is already in place over most of Central America along
with moist monsoonal flow south of the monsoon trough. All these
ingredients are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
over northern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, eastern
Nicaragua and some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. Please consult
products from your local meteorological offices for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Senegal
border near 15N17W to 08N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N23W
to 04N36W to the coast of NE Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N between 25W and
37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near the mouth of the Mississippi
River near 29N89W to SW Louisiana. Also, a surface trough extends
from the western coast of Florida near 27N83W to central Cuba.
However, the Gulf of Mexico remains under a prominent continental
dry airmass that continues to suppress the development of any
significant convection. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
seas in the 1-3 ft range prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the
basin will increase to moderate to fresh over the northern half of
the gulf by Thu morning between a front expected to move into the
northern Gulf coastal waters by Wed night and a surface trough
that will develop over the southeast and south-central Gulf. The
surface trough will shift NE and become a low along the cold front
on Fri afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds will develop
over the northeast Gulf Fri as the low deepens, with frequent
gusts to gale force possible by late Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish over most of the region Sat into Sun as the low lifts
northeast of the area, and the front moves to the southeast of the
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the heavy
rainfall event affecting Central America.

A surface trough, the remnants of a shear line, extends from E
Cuba to N Honduras and it is producing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection within 60 nm of the trough axis. A
recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate fresh to locally
strong northerly winds within 200 nm N of the trough axis,
especially in the Gulf of Honduras. Farther east, an upper level
low over Hispaniola is inducing shallow showers N of 14N and
between 64W and 70W, affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
The rest of the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Moderate or weaker winds are prevalent in the central,
SW and E Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the basin,
with the highest seas being present in the NW and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate trade winds across the central and eastern
basin into Sat. A cold front will move into the northwest
Caribbean by early Sat, followed by moderate to fresh N winds. The
front will reach from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by late
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, the remnant of a dissipating stationary front,
extends from 25N56W to the SE Bahamas and E Cuba, producing shallow
showers near the trough axis. Another weak surface trough extends
from 31N33W to 19N52W and it is also generating shallow showers near
the trough axis. A 1012 mb low pressure near 18N36W and surface
trough extending from 24N34W to 15N39W continue to produce
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection to the E of the
trough axis, mainly within 250 nm. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass depict fresh to strong southerly winds to the E of
the trough axis. The rest of the tropical Atlantic enjoys fairly
tranquil conditions with moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds.
Seas of 3-6 ft are found W of 60W. Seas in the 5-8 ft range are
present E of 60W and N of 20N and 4-7 ft S of 20N.

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France at
website http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area
will support gentle to moderate NE to E winds through Wed. Fresh
to strong N to NE winds will follow a cold front moving into the
waters off northeast Florida Thu night. A low will develop along
the front by Fri evening and strong to near gale force are
anticipated to develop over the waters off northeast Florida
through Sat. Frequents gusts to gale force are possible Fri night
off northeast Florida. The cold front is expected to extend from
Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sun night.

$$
DELGADO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net