[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300847
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun May 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 33W and 38W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 48W and 56W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 01N35W.
It continues from 04N38W to 03N44W to 04N49W. Aside from
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to
08N between 10W and 31W, and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the northern waters, from N Florida to E
Texas. Gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the front. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are over the far SW Gulf. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the SW
Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night off
the Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front over the far northern Gulf
will stall along 27N tonight. Moderate north to northeast winds
will prevail behind the front this morning. High pressure north of
the basin will prevail Mon through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A high pressure ridge prevails north of the area over the SW N
Atlatic waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and climatological low pressure over Colombia is
supporting fresh to locally strong winds over the south central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere across the
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the NW
Caribbean, except to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, seas
are in the 3-5 ft range.

Fresh trades across the south central Caribbean will expand
slightly northward tonight. Fresh winds are expected in the
southern Gulf of Honduras tonight. Tradewinds will freshen east of
80W tonight through Tue as high pressure strengthens modestly
across the western Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow, and from the SE Bahamas to Cuba and Hispaniola.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 19N northward from 74W eastward.

A high pressure ridge extends W-SW to central Florida. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds will develop off the central and NE
Florida coasts tonight, ahead of a cold front that is forecast
to
emerge off the southeastern CONUS early on Sunday. The cold
front will move across northern Florida on Sunday, before
stalling on Sunday night. High pressure will build gradually
westward into the region, from late Monday through Wednesday.

$$
AL
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