[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 11N
southward. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong surrounds the
tropical wave, from 07N southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 09N14W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to
03N29W, to 05N32W, 02N38W, and to 03N43W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward
between 20W and 38W. Isolated moderate to locally strong,
disorganized, is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered strong rainshowers cover much of Texas from 28N to 32N
from 100W eastward. The precipitation is to the east and
southeast of a central Texas cold front. Scattered strong
rainshowers also are in Mexico, from 26N to 28N between the
border with Texas and 102W.

The east central Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic circulation
center from 24 hours ago has moved eastward. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow now covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic
Ocean and Florida from 20N northward between 64W and 84W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery, mostly from 26N southward.

A surface ridge extends from a weak 1015 mb high pressure center
that is near 29N84W, toward the  SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. The surface pressure pattern is generally flat and weak,
especially from 93W eastward.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through
Sat night, as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast
extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh
northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night, off the
Yucatan Peninsula, through Sat. A weak cold front is expected to
sink across the northern Gulf from Sat night into Sun, then
stall across the northern Gulf on Sun night. Expect moderate
north to northeast winds behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The east central Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic circulation
center from 24 hours ago has moved eastward. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow now covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic
Ocean and Florida from 20N northward between 64W and 84W. A
surface trough is along 55W/57W from 19N to 30N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate from Hispaniola to 22N between the 64W and
76W.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Panama along 08N/09N, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: numerous strong is in Venezuela and Colombia,
within 220 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between Lake
Maracaibo and 76W. Numerous strong also is within 90 nm to 120
nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 79W and 81W, to
the north and to the south of Panama. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the
monsoon trough between 79W and 87W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

Fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will remain
generally south of 13N through Sat evening, before expanding
slightly northward Sun. Fresh winds are expected in the southern
Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend. The trade winds
will freshen east of 80W Mon and Tuesday, as high pressure
strengthens modestly across the western Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

The east central Gulf of Mexico upper level cyclonic circulation
center from 24 hours ago has moved eastward. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow now covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic
Ocean and Florida from 20N northward between 64W and 84W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from Hispaniola to 28N between
the 25N64W-to-17N67W surface trough and 76W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N55W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 50W and 61W. A surface trough is along 55W/57W
from 19N to 30N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within a radius of 240 nm from the center.

A surface trough is along 25N64W, to Puerto Rico to 17N67W in
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
within 120 nm on either side of the surface trough.

A surface trough is along 36N43W 29N42W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 26N38W to 31N42W.

A surface ridge is along 32N62W, to the Bahamas near 26N78W.

High pressure prevails across the region today. Moderate to
fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast
tonight, ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the
southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold front will move across
northern Florida on Sun, before stalling Sun night. High
pressure will build gradually westward into the region, from
late Mon through Wed.

$$
mt/al
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