[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281649
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri May 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, moving westward at 10 to
15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 06N between 28W and 31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 06N
between 36W and 41W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N15W. Segments of the ITCZ continue from 08N15W
to 05N27W, from 05N29W to 04N42W, and from 05N45W to 06N53W.
Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N east of
22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure centered over the
northeast Gulf near 29N83W westward across the northern Gulf of
the coast of Texas. A weak trough is analyzed over the Bay of
Campeche in the far southwest Gulf. Winds may be reaching 20 kt
off the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, between the
high pressure over the northeast Gulf and the trough over the Bay
of Campeche. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 2
to 4 ft seas are evident over the western Gulf. Light to gentle
breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf.
Visibility is good across the Gulf, and no significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is observed.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic off the
northeast Florida coast will extend westward to southeast Texas,
supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Sat
night. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each
night off the Yucatan Peninsula through Sat. A weak cold front is
expected to sink across the northern Gulf Sat night into Sun
before stalling across the northern Gulf Sun night. Moderate north
to northeast winds will prevail behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the western Caribbean, and a broad
surface trough reaches from near Puerto Rico to the southeast of
Bermuda. Fresh trade winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean, with fresh to strong winds near the coast of northeast
Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are
in the 6 to 8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 2 to 3
ft over the far NW Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. No
significant showers or thunderstorms are noted across the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades across the south
central Caribbean will diminish through early next week as high
pressure north of the area weakens. However, fresh winds are
expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A trough reaches from north of Puerto Rico to southeast of Bermuda
near 30N62W. 1020 mb high pressure is centered west of the trough
near 28N70W. An upper trough reaches from over 30N75W to the Cay
Sal area. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this trough
may be supporting a few showers just east of the central and
southern Bahamas, but relatively dry conditions are inhibiting
any significant shower activity. This pattern is supporting
moderate NE to E winds north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and
moderate SE winds off the east central and northeast coasts of
Florida. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere west of 65W,
with 2 to 4 ft seas in open waters west of 65W. Farther east, a
cold front reaches from near Madeira to 28N33W. 1028 mb high
pressure centered near the Azores is supporting mainly moderate
trades winds east of 65W, except for fresh N to NE winds off the
coast of northwest Africa, with 5 to 8 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds
will develop off the northeast Florida coast tonight ahead of a
cold front forecast to emerge off the southeastern U.S. early
Sun. The cold front will move across northern Florida on Sun
before stalling Sun night.

$$
Christensen
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