[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W, moving westward at 10 to
15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of
the wave axis from 05N to 07N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 41W, moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
from 01N to 07N between 37W and 43W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N24W.
It resumes from 06N27W to 06N39W, then resumes from 06N43W to
07N57W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ
axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by 1018
mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf near 27N84W. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the vicinity of the high
center, with gentle to moderate east to southeast winds elsewhere.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 92W, and 1-3 ft east of 92W.

The area of high pressure will support gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds through Sat night. Fresh northeast to east winds
will pulse to strong each night off the Yucatan Peninsula through
Sat. A weak cold front is expected to sink across the northern
Gulf Sat night into Sun before stalling across the northern Gulf
Sun night. Moderate north to northeast winds will prevail behind
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the Caribbean. Fresh to locally
strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
over the south central Caribbean, 2-3 ft over the far NW
Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades across the south central Caribbean will
diminish tonight through early next week as high pressure across
the SW N Atlc weakens. Fresh winds are expected in the southern
Gulf of Honduras each night through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

High pressure prevails across the waters north of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted west of the Bahamas, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere west of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere north of 20N. In the tropical waters south of 20N,
moderate to locally fresh winds are noted. Seas are in the 3-4 ft
range west of 60W and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N,
seas are in the 6-8 ft range.

for the forecast W of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds will
develop off the NE Florida coast tonight ahead of a cold front
forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early Sun. The cold
front will move across northern Florida on Sun before stalling Sun
night.

$$
AL
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