[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 13N
southward. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm on
either side of the tropical wave, from 05N to 07N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, from 12N
southward, repositioned, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N to 06N, within 220
nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the
west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to
06N26W, to 05N42W, 07N53W, to the coastal border area of Guyana
and Suriname. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 160 nm
to the south of the ITCZ between 36W and 43W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong, disorganized, is elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east
central Gulf of Mexico, about 150 nm to the west of Lake
Okeechobee in south Florida. Upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico from 88W eastward, and across Florida.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
satellite imagery, between 83W and 90W, and from 20N to 26N from
90W westward. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris
clouds cover Mexico and Texas, from 24N northward, and within
120 nm of the Texas Gulf coast.

A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N75W about 210 nm to the NE of
the NW Bahamas, across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico,
to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through
Sat night, as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast
extends westward to SE Texas and gradually weakens. Fresh
northeast to east winds will pulse to strong each night, off the
Yucatan Peninsula, through Sat. A weak cold front is expected to
sink across the northern Gulf from Sat night into Sun, then
stall across the northern Gulf on Sun night. Expect moderate
north to northeast winds behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 27N61W cyclonic circulation
center, toward the Mona Passage.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N northward from
70W eastward.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
08N80W in Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia, within 45 nm to 90
nm on either side of the monsoon trough, between 74W and the
Colombia/Panama border. Scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 120 nm of the west coast of Colombia from 03N
to 07N. Scattered strong is in parts of the western Lake
Maracaibo of NW Venezuela.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The scatterometer winds show that fresh-to strong NE winds are
within 150 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, including
in the Gulf of Venezuela, between 70W and 75W. Sea heights that
are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet are within 400 nm of the coast
of Colombia from 73W westward.  Fresh to strong NE winds are in
the Windward Passage. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the
Windward Passage.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the south central sections of the
Caribbean Sea will diminish, from Friday through early next
week, as high pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean weakens. Fresh
winds are expected in the southern Gulf of Honduras each night
through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

An upper level trough extends from a 27N61W cyclonic circulation
center, toward the Mona Passage.  Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from Puerto Rico
to 24N between 59W and 70W. A surface trough is along 63W/64W
from 18N in the NE Caribbean Sea to 29N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 330 nm of the center in the E quadrant.

A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N75W about 210 nm to the NE of
the NW Bahamas, across Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico.

A dissipating cold front extends from 31N25W to 29N43W.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm
on either side of the frontal boundary.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward between 35W and 60W.

Scatterometer data show: fresh to strong NE winds cover the area
that is from 08N to 11N between 55W and 58W. Sea heights are 8
feet in that same area.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE
Florida coast, on Friday night, in advance of a cold front that
is forecast to emerge off the southeastern CONUS early on
Sunday. The cold front will move across northern Florida on
Sunday, before stalling on Sunday night.

$$
mt/JA
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