[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W, from 12N
southward. The wave is moving westward 15-20 kt. Precipitation:
scattered strong convection is within 210 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 02N to 04N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W, from 10N
southward, moving westward 15-20 kt. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to
05N between 30W-35W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
03N/04N between 20W and 31W. The ITCZ also is along 04N/05N
between 34W and the coast of French Guiana along 52W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 60 nm to the north of
the ITCZ between 41W-55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 180 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 41W-
52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 120
nm on either side of the rest of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough passes through SE Louisiana, to the
northern part of the coast of Mexico along 23N. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor satellite
imagery. Separate upper-level SW wind flow is cutting across the
southernmost parts of the upper level trough.

A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1023 mb high
pressure center that is near 29N79W, across Florida, to 29N88W
in the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near
21N98W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough passes through 17N97W in southern Mexico,
through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is inland in Mexico, and in the coastal waters
off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, from the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula.

The scatterometer winds show that fresh NE winds are within 90
nm of the coast of Mexico, near the Yucatan Peninsula, between
89W-92W. The sea heights of 5 ft are from 20N to 22N between 91W-
93W.

Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through
Saturday night, as weak high pressure off the NE Florida coast
extends westward to SE Texas, and gradually weakens. Fresh
northeast to east winds will pulse to strong, nightly, off the
Yucatan Peninsula, from tonight through Saturday. A cold front
is expected to move across the northern Gulf of Mexico, from Sat
night into Sun, then stall across the northern Gulf on Sun
night. Expect moderate north to northeast winds behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 28N64W
cyclonic circulation center, to Hispaniola, to 15N75W in the
Caribbean Sea. No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent in satellite imagery.

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Colombia and Panama to 09N80W,  beyond southern Costa Rica, and
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 95W-97W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in interior sections of
Panama. Earlier convective precipitation that was happening in
Costa Rica has been dissipating with time. Convective debris
clouds cover the area from 10N to 13N from 80W westward.

Broken to overcast low-level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the surface to
low-level wind flow.

The scatterometer winds show that near-gale force NE winds are
within 135 nm of the coast of Colombia between 71W-76W. Strong
NE winds are within 180 nm to 300 nm of the rest of the coast of
Colombia, and NW Venezuela, between 71W-80W. Sea heights that
are ranging from 8 to 10 ft are within 380 nm of the coast of
Colombia. Fresh NE to E winds are within 60 nm to the north of
the coast of Honduras between 86W and 88W. Expect fresh NE winds
in the Windward Passage. The sea heights are ranging from 5 to 6
ft off the coast of Honduras and in the Windward Passage.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the central sections of
the Caribbean Sea through early Thursday, as high pressure
resides offshore the NE Florida coast. The wind speeds will
diminish significantly, from Thu through early next week, as the
high collapses. Fresh winds are expected to pulse to strong in
the southern Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

An upper level trough extends from a 28N64W cyclonic circulation
center, to Hispaniola, to 15N75W in the Caribbean Sea.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 15N to 25N between 64W-80W. One surface trough is
along 31N64W 27N67W. A second surface trough is along 63W/64W
from 18N to 28N. A third surface trough is along 30N53W 28N54W
24N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 25N to 30N between 60W-65W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N68W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near
29N79W, across Florida, to 29N88W in the north-central Gulf of
Mexico.

Scatterometer data show: fresh to strong NE winds cover the area
that is from 06N to 12N between 45W and 53W. Sea heights that
range from 8 to 9 ft are within 500 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 40W-57W.

Light winds will prevail north of 24N through Thursday, as weak
low pressure just to the east of Bermuda interrupts the Atlantic
Ocean ridge. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue
across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through early Thursday.
The winds will become gentle to moderate, from Thu through Sun
as the Atlantic Ocean ridge extends from the east central
Atlantic Ocean, weakly WSW, to Florida. Friday night: moderate
to fresh southerly winds will develop off the NE Florida coast,
ahead of a cold front that is forecast to emerge off the
southeastern CONUS early on Sun. The cold front will move across
northern Florida on Sun, before stalling on Sun night.

$$
mt/JA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net