[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251706
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 17W from 16N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 05W to 20W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Outside the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted
from 01N to 05N between 30W to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent satellite imagery depicts that the showers across the
Gulf have subsided. Surface ridging extending from high pressure
centered in the western Atlantic dominates the Gulf and is
keeping dry conditions in place. Moderate to fresh southeasterly
winds prevail throughout most of the Gulf withlight to gentle
winds in the NE portion of the basin. Seas are 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow will
dominate most of the Gulf of Mexico through Wed. Gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds are forecast Wed night through
Sat night with  fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds
pulsing at night off the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough stretches across eastern Panama into the
eastern Pacific. This is the focal point for scattered moderate
to strong convection in the SW Caribbean, S of 12N between 75W
to 83W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted over waters within
80 nm north of Honduras. Fresh to strong trade winds are in the
south-central Caribbean with seas 6 to 9 ft. Fresh winds are in
the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras with seas 3 to 5 ft.
Elsewhere, winds are fresh with seas up to 5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
central and portions of the southwest Caribbean through Wed
night. By Thu, winds will become moderate to locally fresh and
continue through Sat night. In the northwest Caribbean, fresh
winds will dominate through Wed with strong winds pulsing at
night in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage through
Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure sits off the Florida coast near 29N76W.
This is bringing quiescent conditions with light to variable
winds with seas 4 to 5 ft. High pressure also extends across the
eastern and central Atlantic anchored by 1031 mb high E of the
Azores. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 30W with seas
4 to 6 ft. Fresh NE winds are north of 15N and east of 30W.
Another area of fresh NE winds is south of 15N and west of 30W.

For the forecast west of 65W, light winds will prevail through
Wed across most of the western Atlantic as high pressure extends
over the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue
across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles through Wed night. Winds
will become gentle to moderate by Thu through the early weekend.
Toward the end of the week, moderate to fresh southerly winds
will develop off the NE Florida coast ahead of a cold front
pushing off the southeastern CONUS.

$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net