[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Ana is centered near 34.3N 63.0W at 22/1500
UTC or 150 nm NE of Bermuda moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Ana is forecast to remain well north of
the forecast waters. However, large swell associated with the
subtropical storm will affect the waters north of 27N between
60W and 75W through tonight. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: The pressure gradient
between a 1034 mb high pressure centered near 40N33W and lower
pressures over NW Africa is supporting gale force winds near and
in bewteen the Canary Islands, as well as over the marine zone
Agadir. Outside of the gales, strong to near gale force winds
will cover the area north of 25N and east of 24W today. Expect
seas to build to 12-14 ft offshore Morocco this weekend, with 9-
11 ft seas elsewhere north of 22N and east of 32W. See the High
Seas Warning and High Seas Forecast products from Meteo France at
weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 13N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the
wave axis from 03N to 08N. The wave could enhance showers over
the southern Windward Islands and SE Caribbean on Sunday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 04N34W to
02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N
between 13W and 20W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
22W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over the SE United States. Fresh to
strong E-SE winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico,
except for the SW Gulf and waters adjacent to eastern Mexico
where winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over much
of the Gulf waters, except for the extreme SW Gulf where seas
are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will prevail
across the central and eastern Gulf through tonight. Seas will
gradually subside across the Gulf waters through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south central Caribbean
as well as over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range over the central
Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Bahamas across the
western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9
ft seas across the central Caribbean through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on Subtropical
Storm Ana north of the area near Bermuda.

A stationary front extends from 31N43W to the windward passage. A
surface trough extends from 30N68W to 27N64W, with a second
trough from 25N62W to 21N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted in the vicinity of the troughs and stationary front.
Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 22N and west of 70W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. S of 20N, fresh trade
winds prevail. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 25N and
east of 26W, with localized areas of near-gale to gale force in
the vicinity of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 20N
will slowly dissipate through tonight. The pressure gradient
between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal
boundary will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the
front to about 25N and W of 70W today. Large swell associated
with Subtropical Storm Ana near Bermuda will affect the
northeast forecast waters through early Sun.

$$
AL
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