[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 211142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of Bermuda
have become better organized during the past several hours.  The
low has not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics.
However, if current trends continue advisories could be initiated
on the system later today or tonight as it moves westward
to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda.  Subsequently,
the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile
environment by Saturday night or Sunday.  Additional information on
this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a
tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days.  Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven/Papin
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