[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 mb non-tropical low pressure center is about 515 nm to
the ENE of Bermuda. Storm-force winds are in the northern
semicircle. The low is expected to move toward the west-
southwest during the next 24 hours. It is likely that this low
pressure center may become a subtropical cyclone near and to the
northeast of Bermuda, later today, on Friday. The low pressure
center is expected to move toward the north and northeast, into
a more hostile environment, by Saturday night or Sunday. Please,
read the High Seas forecasts that are issued by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center, at: ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php,
for more details.

Gale Warning for the Canary Islands: The forecast from Meteo-
France is for gale-force winds to develop in the area of the
Canary Islands, starting on 21 May, at 0600 UTC. Strong to near
gale-force winds, surrounding this area, will expand on
Saturday, in order to cover the area that is to the north of 26N
and to the east of 24W. The possibility exists, still, of gale-
force winds continuing near the Canary Islands. Expect the sea
heights to build to 12 feet to 15 feet offshore Morocco this
weekend, and with sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet
elsewhere to the north of 22N and to the east of 32W. Please,
read the High Seas Warning and the High Seas Forecast, from
Meteo-France, at: weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 06N20W, and to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from
04N22W to 03N35W to 02N48W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 24W
and 54W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 02N to 04N between
02W and 05W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough, and a middle level to upper level disturbance
in the western Gulf of Mexico, are producing disorganized
rainshowers and thunderstorms, from 86W westward. The
environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for the development of this feature, before the disturbance
moves inland into the northwestern Gulf coastal areas tonight.
It is possible that this system may produce heavy rainfall in
sections of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during
the next few days. Additional information about the rainfall and
flooding potential is to be found in weather bulletins and
forecasts that are issued by your local National Weather Service
Forecast Office.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue in the western Gulf of
Mexico through Fri, with strong gusty winds and seas to 10 ft. A
strong ridge stretching from the eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf
will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sat night. The
pressure gradient will support fresh to strong SE winds and high
seas across the Gulf region through Sat. The sea heights will
peak around 10 to 11 ft in the north-central Gulf Fri evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the areas that are just
offshore northern Haiti, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong, cover the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean
from 17N to 24N from Puerto Rico westward to the Yucatan
Peninsual and in the Yucatan Channel. Fairer skies cover the
Caribbean Sea from 17N southward.

The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from
northern Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is in Colombia.

Fresh to strong E winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea,
and in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere, except for gentle in the NE and SW corners of the
basin. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the
central Caribbean Sea, and ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet
elsewhere.

High pressure, building to the north of the area in the western
Atlantic Ocean, will support fresh to strong winds in the
central Caribbean Sea, and to the south of Cuba, through Sunday
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves through 31N49W, to 23N54W, 21N60W, and
20N71W. A stationary front continues from 20N71W to 21N78W near
the coast of Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are within 400 nm to
the east of the cold front from 24N northward. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong are within 180 nm to 360 nm to the northwest and
north of the cold front, including from the Mona Passage to SE
Cuba. a strong surface ridge that is to the north of this front
has been resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds from 20N
northward from 70W westward. The sea heights are reaching 9 feet
to the east of the Bahamas and to the east of central Florida.
The NE to E trade winds are moderate to fresh from 20N
southward, and gentle elsewhere. The sea heights are ranging
from 7 feet to 8 feet from 20N southward, and ranging from 4
feet to 7 feet elsewhere.

A second cold front extends from a 1017 mb low pressure center
that is near 32N63W, and it continues to 30N62W 28N70W, and
31N76W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds,
and isolated moderate are within 120 nm to 240 nm to the
southeast and south of the cold front.

A surface ridge passes through 31N31W, to 25N44W, to 16N63W in
the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The current stationary front, that is along 20N, will dissipate
gradually, through Friday night. The pressure gradient, between
high pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary,
will support fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front and W
of 68W through late Fri. 6 to 8 ft seas will prevail across the
region through Sat. Large NE swell will enter the NE waters on
Sat, and spread across the forecast area through Mon.

$$
mt/dm
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