[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed May 19 18:13:17 CDT 2021


AXNT20 KNHC 192313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 20 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 00N50W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 08N between
12W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active far northwest Gulf
currently, associated with a mesoscale convective vortex centered
about 120 nm south of Galveston Island, Texas. Elevated platforms
in the northwest Gulf reported winds to gale force for brief
periods earlier this afternoon. Thunderstorms along the leading
edge are advancing southward along the Tamaulipas coast, and off
the coast of southwest and south-central Louisiana. Elsewhere,
scatterometer and buoy data indicate fresh E to SE winds over the
remainder of the Gulf, with pockets of strong winds noted over the
north-central Gulf. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the northern Gulf and
up to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida, where fresh to occasionally
strong E winds run counter to the eastward moving Florida
Current. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms are expected continue
across the NW and central Gulf of Mexico over the few days.
These storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds and
reduce visibility. Meanwhile, a strong ridge stretching from
eastern seaboard to the NE Gulf will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters the remainder of the week. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and deepening low pressure across the Southern
Plains and northern Mexico will result in fresh to strong SE
winds and high seas across the Gulf region tonight through Sat.
Seas will peak 10 to 13 ft on Thu and Fri in the Straits of
Florida with 12 ft seas in the central Gulf on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

1029 mb high pressure is centered off Carolina coast. This is
producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin, with a
small area of fresh to strong SE winds occurring off the central
coast of Honduras and over the south- central Caribbean with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. In the southwest Caribbean,
the monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure centered
over northern Colombia near 11N73W westward to western Panama and
southern Costa Rica. No significant showers or thunderstorms are
noted at this time.

For the forecast, the high pressure off the U.S. East Coast will
continue to build across the western Atlantic. This will bring
fresh to strong winds tonight across the central Caribbean through
early next week. Fresh to strong winds will also occur in the lee
of Cuba on Fri and the weekend. Expect fresh to strong easterly
winds in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A stationary front reaches from 32N35W to 22N75W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active along the front east of 65W. Weak 1018 mb low
pressure is analyzed near 30N60W. The gradient between the low
pressure and 1029 mb high pressure off the Carolina coast is
supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 27N and west of
the front, with 7 to 9 ft seas in open waters. Farther east, broad
ridging centered east of the Azores is supporting moderate to
fresh trade winds south of 18N with 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh
SE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are noted between the 1018 mb low and
the ridge. Elsewhere north of 18N gentle to moderate NE to E
winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are observed, except for fresh to
strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas off Morocco.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will weaken
through Thu. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between the high
pressure off the eastern seaboard and the frontal boundary will
support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front
and W of 65W Wed through Fri. Seas will peak around 10 ft E of the
Bahamas tonight through early Thu.

$$
Christensen
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