[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...METEO-FRANCE GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO...

The surface pressure gradient between the 1024 mb Azores high
pressure center that is near 34N23W and the comparatively lower
surface pressures in West Africa, is supporting gale-force winds
in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR. The sea
heights there are ranging from 9 to 11 feet. The winds are
forecast to diminish below gale-force at 19/0000 UTC. Please,
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the
website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2,
or the website:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.0635.1806352524849.html
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near
10N14W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 03N36W to the
NE coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 05W and 30W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N
between 33W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard extends a ridge
S-SW through Georgia and northern Florida, and into the north
central Gulf of Mexico. The associated pressure gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds across most of the basin,
except SE to S winds across NW portions. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across
much of the basin, except to 7 ft in the Straits of Florida.

Middle level troughing extending from W Texas into the NW Gulf
continues to interact with moist return flow at low levels and is
producing clusters of strong convection across south central and
southeast Louisiana extending southward over waters to 27.5N, and
also across the central Texas coast and adjacent waters. Storms
over Louisiana and adjacent coastal waters have produced
torrential rainfall and wind gusts 30-40 kt overnight.

Elsewhere across the basin, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen across the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida,
embedded in the fresh easterly wind flow across the basin.

High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the N central Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout
the week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over
the basin today. Winds will increase to fresh to strong tonight
through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains and
northern Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure across the NE Atlantic extends W-SW across the
central Atlantic and weakly north of the NE Caribbean. The
associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to fresh
tradewinds across the basin. Generally fair weather prevails
across most of the basin under the stable influence of an upper
level trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen across
the coastal waters of Cuba, north of 20N, due to associated
moisture from a shearline extending from the central Bahamas
across central Cuba to the Yucatan Channel.

The monsoon trough extends from  Colombia near 11N73W, through
Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong
convection across NW Colombia extends across the SW Caribbean to
11.5N79W.

The weak high pressure ridge extending north of the NE Caribbean
will maintain moderate to fresh tradewinds across the basin
through Wed. Trade winds will increase basin wide Wed night
through Fri night as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of
Honduras mainly at night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A lingering cold front extends from 31N46W to 25N54W to 24N64W
then becomes a shearline to east central Cuba near 23N77W.
passes through 31N48W to 29N50W to 24N60W. High pressure along the
coast of Cape Hatteras is supporting moderate to fresh E-NE winds
to the north of the shearline and west of 68W, where seas are 5 to
7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the
front to the east of 65W, while scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen elsewhere north of the shearline west of
65W and through the Straits of Florida.

To the east of the front, and elongated ridge extends from 1024
mb high pressure near 34N23W to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Generally fair weather prevails SE of the front and into the
tropics. Satellite imagery suggests area of suspended African dust
across the Tropical Atlantic south of 17N from 45W to the W
African coast. Moderate tradewinds prevail across the tropics
south of 17N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft.

The stationary portions of the front will gradually become
aligned E to W along 23N through Thu then sink southward to 21N
and dissipate by Fri night. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Cape Hatteras and the frontal boundary will
support an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of the front
and W of 68W Wed through Fri morning, with seas peaking around 11
ft E of the Bahamas late Wed through early Thu.

$$
Stripling
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