[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon May 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 32N59W, just to the north
of the area. Expect gale-force SW-to-W winds, and sea heights
ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, in the area that from 30N to
31N between 58W and 60W.

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO...

The surface pressure gradient, that is between a high pressure
center that is between the Madeira Archipelago and the Azores
Islands, and comparatively lower surface pressures in West
Africa, will support developing gale-force winds in the
METEO-FRANCE forecast area, that is called AGADIR.  The
gale-force winds are forecast to start at 17/1500 UTC, and end
possibly at 18/0000 UTC. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 9 to 12 feet. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast, that is on the website: www.meteofrance.com/
previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2, or the
website:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1919.16
19193337429.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea_Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W, to 03N30W, to the Equator along 35W. The ITCZ continues
along the Equator, from 35W to 42W, to 06N52W, and to 10N61W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 01N to 04N
between 14W and 17W, and from 02N to 01S between 40W and 45W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the
area that is from 06N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shear line extends from the Bahamas near 23N75W, to NW Cuba,
and to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level SW-to-W wind
flow is moving through the Gulf of Mexico.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 90 nm to the south of the coasts of Louisiana and Texas
between 92W and 95W.

Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate cover the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward.
The clouds and precipitation are in the area of the frontal
boundary that was in the Gulf of Mexico during the last few days.

High pressure across the SE U.S. will shift slowly into the
western Atlc through Tue, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE
winds over the basin. Winds will increase to fresh to strong
late Tue through Thu as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
Panama near 09N80W, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level ridge extends from
northern Colombia to Nicaragua and Honduras. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia, near the border
with Venezuela, from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W.

An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua
and Honduras. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery from 67W eastward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The scatterometer winds show that strong NE winds are within 200
nm of the coast of Colombia between 64W and 77W. The sea heights
in that same area are ranging from 6 to 7 feet.

Atlc high pressure ridge NE of the area will shift eastward and
weaken, diminishing winds and seas modestly through Mon. Trade
winds will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as
high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A cold front passes through 31N57W to 27N60W to 24N70W, to the
Bahamas near 23N75W. A shear line continues from 23N75W, to NW
Cuba, and to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the
south of the cold front, from 24N northeastward. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers,
are elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N27W, to 27N46W, to 25N61W, and to 24N70W.

The scatterometer winds show that fresh to strong are within 300
nm to the southeast of the 1004 mb low pressure center, that is
near 32N59W, that is responsible for the gale-force winds.

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
17N northward from 33W eastward, associated with a 24N26W upper
level cyclonic circulation center.

A weakening frontal boundary from 25.5N65W to the central
Bahamas will drift SE and dissipate through Tue. Winds will
increase north of 24N and west of 68W late Tue through Thu as
high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

$$
mt/SS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net