[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun May 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits western Africa from the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N21.5W. The ITCZ continues from
05N21.5W to 03N36W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen from 00N-09N between 02W-23W, and from
02N-05N between 32W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level shortwave pushing eastward across northern Texas is
enhancing uplift over eastern Texas. The latest CIMSS analysis
from University of Wisconsin shows upper-level divergence over
the NW Gulf of Mexico. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture over
the western Gulf. These aforementioned factors are leading to
scattered moderate and isolated strong thunderstorms over the
western Gulf, mainly north of 25N and west of 95W. A recent
ASCAT pass shows fresh SE winds over the west-central Gulf,
north of 21N and west of 94W, but locally much gustier winds are
possible in strong thunderstorms. A 1025 mb high pressure
centered over South Carolina extends surface ridging towards the
central Gulf. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds over the E
Gulf. Seas are 5-7 ft in the west-central Gulf and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure across the SE U.S. will shift
slowly into the western Atlc through Tue to support moderate to
fresh E to SE winds over the basin. Active weather will continue
across NW portions today. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
will gradually migrate toward the central Gulf through Tue.
Winds will increase to fresh to strong late Tue through Thu as
low pressure deepens across the Southern Plains.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air and mostly clear skies prevail over the eastern half of
the Caribbean. Little to no precipitation is seen over the
western half of the basin either, although scattered clouds are
present. High pressure over the NE Atlantic extends surface
ridging SW to 23N65W and is supporting  strong NE-E trade winds
off the coast of Colombia, south of 13N between 74W-77W, as
shown by a recent ASCAT pass. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere from
10N-15N between 70W-78W. Moderate winds cover the remainder of
the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft offshore Colombia, 4-6 ft elsewhere
south of 16N, and 2-4 ft north of 16N.

For the forecast, the Atlc high pressure ridge NE of the area
will shift eastward and weaken, diminishing winds and seas
modestly tonight through Mon. Trade winds will increase basin
wide Wed night through Thu night as high pressure builds across
the W Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 31.5N64W
to 28N66W to 25N72W. A shear line extends from 25N72W to the
coast of Cuba near 23N80W. A warm front extends ESE from the low
pressure to 30N56W. A cold front continues ENE from 30N56W to
31N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 26N
between 52W-63W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate N winds
north of the cold front, except for fresh to strong closer to
the low pressure. Fresh NE winds are also occurring just east of
Florida. Seas north of the Bahamas and west of 70W are currently
5-7 ft. To the south of the cold front and shear line, gentle
E-SE trades cover the waters from the SE Bahamas to the N coast
of Hispaniola. A 1025 mb high pressure over South Carolina
extends ridging to the NW Bahamas.

For the forecast, the 1013 mb low pressure near 31.5N64W is
forecast to intensify and move ENE over the next 12-24 hours,
producing gale force winds around its western semicircle by this
afternoon. This will spread large seas north of 28N and behind
the front over the central Atlantic through Tuesday. The portion
of the cold front west of 65W will drift SE and dissipate by
Tue. Winds will increase north of 24N and west of 68W late Tue
through Thu as high pressure builds across the W Atlc.

Farther east currently, a 1027 mb high pressure near 34N25W
extends a broad surface ridge axis to 29N40W to 23N59W to
23N65W. Gentle to moderate winds cover the subtropical Atlantic
from 18N-30N between 25W-60W, except for moderate to fresh SW
winds north of 26N and west of 56W, in advance of the cold
front. Seas are 4-5 ft across the gentle to moderate wind area
of the subtropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail
from the Canary Islands to the coast of Morocco, where seas are
7-9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic south of 18N and east of 60W,
most areas are experiencing moderate NE-E trade winds with seas
of 6-7 ft.

$$
Hagen
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