[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun May 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Guinea_Bissau near 12N16W, to 05N20W, and 05N24W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N24W, to 03N30W, 02N40W, 04N43W, 04N47W. A
surface trough is along 47W/49W from the Equator to 08N.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and
within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, between
24W and 47W, and within 240 nm to 360 nm off the coast of Africa
from 20W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has been moving westward during the last 18
hours or so. The surface trough is associated with a
comparatively thin line of rainshowers. The surface trough
extends for 335 nm to the SSE of the coast of Louisiana near
29N90.5W.

Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate cover the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward
from 92W eastward. The clouds and precipitation are in the area
of the frontal boundary that was in the Gulf of Mexico during
the last few days.

Upper level westerly wind flow is pushing moisture at many
levels into the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico, from 92W
westward.

High pressure will prevail in the Gulf waters, supporting
moderate to fresh E to SE winds in most areas through Tuesday.
Active weather will continue in the W sections to the N of 23N,
from tonight through Sunday, as moist return flow prevails.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes through Colombia near 11N74W, through
the Colombia/Panama border, through Panama from 07N to 08N
between 80W and 81W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An
upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua
and Honduras. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is in Colombia, within 300 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough, between 72W and 80W in the coastal waters of
Colombia.

An upper level ridge extends from northern Colombia to Nicaragua
and Honduras. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery from 67W eastward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

The scatterometer winds show that strong NE winds are within 200
nm of the coast of Colombia between 68W and 78W, including in
the Gulf of Venezuela.  The sea heights in that same area are
ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet.

The current Atlantic Ocean ridge, that is to the N of the area,
will shift eastward and weaken, diminishing the wind speeds and
the sea heights, from tonight through Monday. The trade winds
will increase in the south central Caribbean Sea, from late
Monday through Wednesday, as high pressure builds in the W
Atlantic Ocean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

A dissipating cold front passes through 31N54W to 29N60W to
26N70W, to the Bahamas near 24N76W.  Precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong is within 210 nm to the north of the
dissipating cold front between 55W and 63W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate
rainshowers, are elsewhere to the north of the line that passes
through 31N38W 25N60W, to the coast of Cuba near 21N.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N30W, to 30N37W, to 25N61W, and to 24N70W.

The scatterometer winds show that fresh to strong NE winds are
along 30N and from 30N northward between 57W and 65W. Expect sea
heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the area of the
fresh to strong winds. Sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8
feet also are from 25N northward from 70W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
15N northward from 40W eastward, associated with a nearby upper
level trough.

The current weakening frontal boundary, from 29N65W to the
central Bahamas, will drift SE and dissipate through Sunday. The
wind speeds will increase to the north of 25N and to the west of
70W, from late Tuesday through Wednesday, as high pressure
builds in the W Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt/SS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net