[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of the border of
Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to  03N21W to 02N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 02N30W to 02N40W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N-05N between 20W-27W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen along and within
150 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure near
25N80W to the coast of Cuba near 23N83W to 22.5N87W. No
significant precipitation and moderate wind speeds are
associated with the front. Expect the front to stall and
continue weakening this afternoon. Isolated showers are over the
central and western Bay of Campeche, mainly south of 22N and
west of 92W, in association with a weak surface trough. A 1020
mb surface high pressure over southern Georgia extends broad
ridging over the NE Gulf of Mexico, where the latest ASCAT pass
shows gentle to moderate E winds. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE
Gulf. The latest surface observations in the western Gulf of
Mexico show moderate to fresh SE winds, where seas are 3-5 ft.
Expect SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf to
increase slightly to fresh, from late this afternoon through Sun
morning, with seas as high as 7 ft off the coast of Texas.
Looking ahead, a stationary front will linger across the
northern Gulf coast Tue and Wed with showers occurring along the
boundary.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level trough situated over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is inducing isolated to scattered showers over portions of the
SE Caribbean from Dominica southward and mainly east of Bonaire.
In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is seen
within 60 nm north of the coast of Panama. Mostly dry conditions
prevail across the remainder of the basin. A recent ASCAT pass
shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean, with moderate
winds elsewhere, except for gentle in the lee of Cuba to the
Cayman Islands. An overnight altimeter pass from 12 hours ago
measured seas near 5 ft over the central Caribbean between
66W-70W.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean today. Winds will become
fresh to strong in the central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras tonight through Wednesday as high pressure builds to
the north. Seas will build to 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean
by early Mon. Showers are expected to increase in coverage
across the eastern Caribbean today through Mon, in association
with a mid-level trough moving westward across the southern
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 60W: A cold front extends from Bermuda to 27N70W to
Eleuthera Island Bahamas near 25N76W, where the front
transitions to a stationary front that continues to a weak 1016
mb low pressure offshore the Florida Keys near 25N80W. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms are within 90 nm either side of the
front. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh SW winds extending to
240 nm east of the front to the north of 29N. Moderate NE winds
are north of the front, over and east of the Bahamas. Gentle SE
winds prevail over the Old Bahama Channel. The front will weaken
across the region by Sun night into Mon. A 1020 mb surface high
pressure over southern Georgia extends broad ridging over the
waters to the north of the NW Bahamas, with gentle to moderate
winds. Seas are 5-7 ft north of 28N between 60W-75W, 1-3 ft in
the Old Bahama Channel and in the Bahamas, and 3-5 ft elsewhere
west of 60W. Looking ahead, another front will drift south of
30N across NE Florida Tue night into Wed.

East of 60W: Over the central subtropical Atlantic, broad
surface ridging is anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure near
29N45W. A surface ridge axis with moderate winds extends WSW to
25N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. An upper-level low is
centered near 24N52W. Upper-level divergence to the SE of the
upper-low is enhancing scattered showers from 16N-24N between
42W-52W. Farther south, an area of scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 07N-12N between 57W-61.5W,
associated with a mid-level trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows
fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between
30W-60W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Wind speeds over the NE Atlantic
from 20N-30N are gentle to moderate, due to ridging. Seas across
the eastern and central Atlantic are less than 5 ft from 22N-30N.

$$
Hagen
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