[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri May 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 02N27W to 00N35W, then transitions to the ITCZ
near 00N35W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection  extends
260 nm on Either side of the trough E of 22W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted near the coast of Brazil from 00N to
04S W of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper-level trough continue to support a stationary
front that as of 0300 UTC extends from the Big Bend W to 27N90W
to 24N95W. Low level precipitable water imagery depict shallow
moisture ahead of this front, which is generating scattered
showers over the NE gulf. Moderate north to northeast winds are
behind the front over the NW basin as well as along the eastern
coast of Mexico adjacent waters where seas range between 3 to 5
ft.
A prefrontal trough is observed extending from the western
Atlantic Across South Florida into the Gulf to near 24N83W.
Scattered showers cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the
trough.

The eastern part of a stationary front across the northern Gulf
will push southward as a cold front to the southeastern Gulf by
Fri evening, while the rest of the front dissipates. Moderate to
fresh return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf
this weekend. Hazy sky conditions due to agricultural fires in
southeastern Mexico are likely for at least a few more days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The east Pacific monsoon trough supports scattered moderate
isolated strong convection over Colombia and northern coast of
Panama and Costa Rica. Clear skies and fair weather conditions
are elsewhere with ridge building over the basin. Moderate
trades are across the central and eastern Caribbean with seas
ranging between 3 to 5 ft, except for seas up to 7 ft in the
adjacent coastal waters of Colombia. Light to gentle variable
winds with seas up to 3 ft are in the NW portion of the basin.

A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over
most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across
the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the
north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough supports a stationary front
across northern Florida and a pre-frontal trough that extends
from 29N77W to near 24N83W. Diffluent flow between the base of
the upper trough and a broad anticyclone that sits over the NW
Caribbean supports scattered showers and tstms within 100 nm
ahead of the trough.
Moderate southwest winds are ahead of the trough N of 27N to 65W
with seas to 4 ft. A surface trough is noted extending from
27N56W to 23N64W and another trough further east near 32N34W to
24N35W. The remainder Atlantic waters are under the influence of
the Bermuda-Azores high which is anchored by a 1022 mb high near
27N51W. Altimeter passes show seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, the stationary front will transition to a cold
front and move east of northern Florida overnight, and reach
from 31N76W to southern Florida by Fri morning. The northern
part of the front will continue eastward across the northern
forecast waters through Sat night. A weak cold front will move
into the far northern waters on Tue.

$$ MTorres
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