[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032130 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2130 UTC Mon May 3 2021

Updated Caribbean Sea section to include mention of smoke

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from through coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 02N20W to 01N29W, where recent
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions the ITCZ to
01N40W and to 02N50W. Numerous strong convection is from the
Equator to 07N E of 14W. Numerous moderate to strong within within
180 nm north of trough between 13W-17W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of axis between
20W-25W and within 120 nm north of trough between 25W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The gradient between high pressure near Bermuda and low pressure
over the south-central U.S. is producing moderate to fresh
southeast to south winds over the area, with a small area of
strong southeast  SE winds to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin, on average, except for 5-7 ft
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and 1-3 ft east of 85W. No
significant precipitation is currently occurring over the basin.
Low stratus clouds and areas of haze are seen in the NW Gulf
extending about 120 nm offshore from the coast of Texas, reducing
visibilities to 2-4 miles in some spots.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong southeast to south
will prevail through Tue over much of the Gulf. A weak cold front
will cross the NW Gulf Tue night and extend from the Louisiana
coast to the SW Gulf on Wed before stalling and weakening. Fresh
northerly winds will briefly develop behind this front Tue night
into Wed over the far western Gulf. Another weak cold front may
cross the northern Gulf Thu night into Fri before stalling and
weakening over the central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...Updated

A mid-level ridge over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles is
producing subsidence and very dry air over the Caribbean Sea north
of about 14N as shown by GOES-16 water vapor channels. In the
southwestern Caribbean satellite imagery shows scattered showers
and thunderstorms south of 13N W of 80W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south of 11N between the coast of
Colombia and 80W. The tail-end of an upper-level trough in
combination with modest low-level convergence is helping to
trigger off a small area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection over the southeastern Caribbean that includes
the southern Windward Islands as reported in recent surface
observations from that part of the sea.

Recent ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds across
the basin, with the exception of fresh, to at times, strong
southeast to south winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh east
winds are noted within 120 nm offshore the coast of Colombia
between 72W- 76W. Seas are 3-5 ft across most of the basin, except
5-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft south of Cuba and in
the far southwestern Caribbean.

Dense smoke from agricultural fires in northern Honduras and in
Belize is noted on GOES-16 to be spreading northward over the
Gulf of Honduras and to just northeast of Belize. Visibility may
be reduced due to the smoke.

For the forecast, a western Atlantic high pressure ridge along
27N-28N will support moderate to fresh trades across much of the
basin this week. Fresh to strong south SE winds with locally
higher seas will change little over the Gulf of Honduras through
Wed night, then begin to diminish through Fri as the pressure
gradient relaxes across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Recent ASCAT data depicts a surface ridge that extends from a
1025 mb high center located north of the area near 34N41W west-
southwestward to 28N73W and to central Florida. The ASCAT data
also shows generally light to gentle winds north of 25N between
37W- 75W. Higher wind speeds of moderate to fresh intensity are
north of 25N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
south of 22N west of 63W and over some areas south E of 63W.
Seas west of 63W are 3-5 ft, and 4-6 ft east of 63W. Farther
east, a stationary front extends from near 32N49W to 29N55W, then
begins to dissipate to near 28N63W. A rather sharp upper-level
trough over this same area is enhancing convection east of the
front north of 29N between 46W-49W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are within 150 nm south of the front between 49W-
54W. Seas north of 27N between 45W-60W have subsided to 5-6 ft
as the northwest there decays. A 1018 mb low is near 32N24W,
with an occluded front extending from it to 31N22W, then
transitions to a cold front to 28N33W and to 27N25W, where it
begins to dissipate to near 27N29W. An ASCAT pass over that part
of the Atlantic has mainly fresh southeast to south winds ahead
of the cold front north of 30N and east to 21W. Isolated showers
are possible near the cold front.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic high pressure ridge
will generally support moderate winds through Wed, with locally
fresh winds north of Hispaniola. A cold front is expected to move
off the southeastern U.S. coast Wed night into Thu, then move
across the waters north of 24N through Fri night while gradually
weakening. In the far eastern Atlantic, north to northeast winds
will increase to fresh to strong speeds through Wed night offshore
Morocco and Western Sahara, occasionally reaching near gale force
off Morocco.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net